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Europe's Economy Can't Cope
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Good Morning,
Germany is forecasting its first two-year recession in two decades, BofA is losing work over its Asia block-trading probe, Jamie Dimon questioned pensions' private market investments, and China's stimulus rally took a major breather.
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Let's dive in.
Before The Bell

As of 10/09/2024 market close.
Markets
US stocks jumped as investors reacted to Fed minutes and shook off geopolitical concerns
S&P and Dow hit new ATHs
Canada's TSX index hit a new ATH
CSI 300's 7% drop was its biggest since 2020 and its first in eleven days
Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 0.6% from two-week lows
Markets fully priced in a third ECB rate cut to 3.25% next week
US 10Y term premium turned positive for the first time since July
VIX of bonds surged to its highest level YTD
Dollar rose to two-month highs
Traders are looking ahead to today's September CPI report
Earnings
What we're watching this week:
Today: Delta, Domino's
Friday: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
Full calendar here
🇺🇸 Election Forecast
Trump took the lead on Kalshi for the first time. See live odds and place your trades!
Headline Roundup
Fed minutes revealed divide over size of September rate cut (CNBC)
Leveraged bets on China stocks surge as risk appetite grows (BBG)
Regional banks bracing for tougher capital rules get relief from Fed cuts (RT)
Germany expects economy to shrink in 2024 (FT)
European industrial companies are most distressed since Covid (BBG)
Jamie Dimon questions pension funds' private investments (RT)
TD Bank faces $3B in fines and growth restrictions in US settlement (WSJ)
Bank of America is losing work over block-trading probe in Asia (WSJ)
UK firms given greater leeway to award execs big pay rises (FT)
OpenAI pursues public benefit structure to fend off hostile takeovers (FT)
Hurricane Milton could cost insurers up to $100B (RT)
GSK will settle Zantac cancer lawsuits for $2.2B (RT)
TreasuryDirect customer service requests could take a year (WSJ)
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Deal Flow
M&A / Investments
Canadian convenience store giant Couche-Tard increased its bid for 7-Eleven owner Seven & i Holdings by 22% to ~$47B
BlackRock and CVC are exploring an acquisition of private credit giant HPS Investment Partners, which was weighing an IPO at a $10B valuation
Global miner Rio Tinto agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium for $6.7B cash
MCB Real Estate sweetened its offer for shopping center operator Whitestone REIT to ~$1.5B, including debt
UK packaging firm Mondi will acquire German, Benelux, and UK packaging assets of Schumacher Packaging for $695M, including debt
Bernard Arnault and Red Bull will acquire 55% and 15% stakes in Ligue 2 team Paris FC respectively
Global commodities broker Oil Brokerage acquired rival Blue Commodities
VC
Basecamp Research, an AI model to understand biology, raised a $60M Series B led by Singular
Cybersecurity startup HUMAN Security raised a $50M+ round led by WestCap
Carbon storage startup Paebbl raised a $25M Series A led by Capnamic
Case Status, an AI-powered client engagement platform for law firms, raised a $19.7M Series B led by Grayhawk Capital and Topmark Partners
Surfin, a fintech for the underserved middle class, raised $12.5M in funding from Insignia Ventures Partners
CYRISMA, an all-in-one risk management platform, raised a $7M Series A led by Blueprint Equity
Molg, a robotics startup streamlining electronics production, raised a $5.5M seed round led by Closed Loop Partners
IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Malaysia's MMC Port is considering a $1.6B IPO in what could be the country's largest listing in over a decade
Carlyle-backed analytical instruments maker Rigaku is looking to raise $870M in a Tokyo IPO
India's Adani Enterprises is seeking to raise $500M in a share sale s
CVC-backed Moove Lubricants, a subsidiary of Brazilian conglomerate Cosan, delayed its IPO
Debt
Royal Bank of Canada sold $4.7B in bonds and may raise another $1.5B
Fundraising
Real assets investor Harrison Street closed its ninth US opportunistic real estate fund at $2.5B
PE firm Ember Infrastructure raised $500M for its second sustainability-focused fund
Crypto Corner
HBO film says Bitcoin creator is developer Peter Todd, but Peter denies claim
US charged four crypto market makers and their execs with market manipulation and fraud
Exec’s Picks
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Check out this insane story of a Canadian carpenter who made, then lost, $300M in options trading and is now blaming his bank.
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