Earnings In for a Surprise

Author

Litquidity Capital
October 15, 2024

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Good Morning,

Elliott launched its first proxy fight in seven years, Keir Starmer vowed to rip up UK's regulatory bureaucracy, Chinese EVs are crushing European competition, and Q3 earnings may blow past estimates on unusually bearish analyst sentiment.

Accelerate and streamline your M&A workflows like never before with today's sponsor, SS&C Intralinks DealCentre AI.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 10/14/2024 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks rose yesterday as investors braced for major earnings this week

    • S&P and Dow notched new ATHs

    • US bond markets were closed in observance of Columbus Day

  • Canada's TSX index hit an ATH

  • Dollar climbed to a ten-week high

  • Chinese yuan is down 1% since China's stimulus announcement last month

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: BofA, Citigroup, Goldman, UnitedHealth, Walgreens

    • Wednesday: Morgan Stanley, ASML

    • Thursday: TSMC, Netflix, Blackstone

    • Friday: P&G

  • Full calendar here

🇺🇸 Election Forecast

As of 10/14/2024.

  • Trump's lead expands on Kalshi for the fifth straight day, including pulling ahead in key swing states. See live odds and bet now!

Headline Roundup

  • CEOs and analysts are at odds over Q3 earnings outlook (BBG)

  • PE exit tactics risk curbing fees for banks (BBG)

  • 40% of US M&A involved PE in 2022 (BBG)

  • Corporate debts mount as credit funds let borrowers defer payments (FT)

  • China to address local debt problems before tackling broader economy (CNBC)

  • EM sovereign defaults are expected to rise over next decade (FT)

  • UK PM Starmer vows to rip up bureaucracy to unleash investments (FT)

  • Banks call on EU to commit to shorter settlement plan (FT)

  • Elliott takes Southwest flight to shareholders with eight board nominees (CNBC)

  • Microsoft AI VP Sebastien Bubeck will join OpenAI (BBG)

  • Activists want UBS barred from US pension market (RT)

  • Google invests in nuclear plants to power AI (WSJ)

  • China EVs are leaving German manufacturers in the dust (BBG)

  • Chinese spying is overwhelming Western governments (WSJ)

  • Nobel economics prize awarded to three for work on nation’s wealth (AP)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • PE firms TPG and Blackstone teamed up for a joint bid for eyecare company Bausch + Lomb, which has an $11.5B EV

  • KKR is in early talks to take $5B Hong Kong-listed chip equipment maker ASMPT private

  • Danish pharma company  Lundbeck agreed to acquire US-based epilepsy drug developer Longboard Pharmaceuticals for $2.6B cash

  • An unnamed Swiss JV partner will acquire Phillips 66's remaining 49% interest in fuel retailer Coop Mineraloel for $1.2B  

  • Vanda Pharmaceuticals rejected a second $488M cash takeover offer from UK-based Cycle Pharmaceuticals 

  • Apollo-backed movie studio Legendary Entertainment agreed to acquire Chinese conglomerate Wanda's stake in the business

VC

  • Logik.io, an AI-enabled CPQ platform, raised a $25M Series B from Emergence Capital, High Alpha, and more

  • Liner, a Korean global AI search startup, raised a $20M Series B2 led by Atinum Investment and InterVest

  • ApertureData, a multimodal AI database, raised an $8.2M seed round led by TQ Ventures

  • Aerleum, a startup converting CO2 to cargo fuel, raised a $6M seed round led by 360 Capital and HTGF 

  • Concretene, a nanotech firm decarbonizing the concrete industry, raised a $3.8M round led by Molten Ventures 

  • Dreamwell AI, a startup automating influencer marketing, raised a $2.5M pre-seed round led by Draper Associates

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Tokyo Metro raised $2.3B in Japan's biggest IPO in six years

  • An unnamed shareholder is offloading a $279M stake in Deutsche Bank 

  • Polish software firm Transition Technologies MS is planning a local IPO

Debt

  • Fintech SoFi agreed to originate $2B in personal loans from Fortress Investment Group funds

  • UK grocer Morrisons is seeking to refinance $1.6B of leveraged loan

  • Insight Partners-backed software firm Optimizely is raising $1.1B in debt refinancing led by Golub Capital

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Sun Capital-backed Clinical Care Medical Centers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and intends to sell to health insurer Humana

  • Wholesaler True Value filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and intends to sell to rival Do it Best

Fundraising

  • PE FOF Adams Street Partners raised $1.2B for a venture fund

  • Climate tech VC Activate Capital is seeking to raise $500M for its third fund

Crypto Corner

  • USDT stablecoin issuer Tether is in talks to lend to commodities traders (BBG)

  • Google removed Bitcoin and other crypto price charts from search (CT)

Exec’s Picks

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We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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