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Good Morning,

Bridgewater is seeing its best performance in years, Musk's $1T pay plan is facing pushback, Trump signed up with Citigroup as a client, OpenAI became the world's most valuable private company, and Diddy is planning an AI startup after jail.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 10/2/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks continued to climb as investors shrugged off government shutdown concerns

    • All three major indexes closed at ATHs

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 hit an ATH

  • China's CSI 300 index is at its highest since early-2022 after rallying 21% YTD

    • CSI 300 tech index surged to its highest since 2015

  • Asian convertible bonds index surged 13% for its best month ever

    •  Global convertible bonds rose 4.6% rise in September

  • Gold notched its seventh-straight weekly gain 

  • European coal sank to a 19-month low as renewable generation soars

  • Cocoa futures hit an eleven-month low 

  • Dollar snapped a four-day losing streak

  • Bitcoin hit $120k for the first time since its ATH seven weeks ago

Earnings

  • A rare empty calendar this week. But we've just entered a crucial Q3 earnings season so stay tuned for all the important updates.

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • How many days until EDGAR goes dark?

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • Diddy plans to launch an AI startup after jail (FT)

  • White House targets deals in pharma, AI, energy, mining by midterms (RT)

  • Prolonged US government shutdown could raise market risks (RT)

  • Traders scour private data to gauge jobs amid government shutdown (FT) 

  • Big PE groups risk harming sector's standing (FT)

  • Private credit gets creative as fundraises take longer than ever (BBG)

  • Private markets brace for cycle test as Asia exits remain tight (RT)

  • Europe's IPO bankers say market is finally turning a corner (BBG)

  • UK should be concerned about 'relentless' M&A wave (BBG)

  • US bank reserves fell below key $3T mark (BBG)

  • Africa stocks rally into global top 20 on reforms and dollar weakness (BBG)

  • Bridgewater's flagship macro fund is up 26% YTD (BBG)

  • Trump signed up with Citigroup as a client (BBG)

  • Tesla posted a surprise sales gain ahead of end to federal EV subsidy (BBG)

  • India raised IPO loan limits in boost for new listings (BBG)

  • India mulls oversight of family offices as billionaires dominate (BBG)

  • FICO plans to sell credit scores directly to mortgage resellers (BBG

  • Musk's $1T pay plan is facing pushback from investors and officials (RT)

  • Shein enters bricks-and-mortar retail in France, sparking backlash (RT)

  • Apple removed ICE tracking apps amid DOJ pressure (CNBC)

  • US is exploring a $10B bailout for farmers due to tariffs (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Spanish lender BBVA vowed to pursue a second bid for $20B-listed peer Banco Sabadell but without raising new funds

  • Abu Dhabi SWF ADIA and Goldman Sachs Asset Management agreed to invest in PAI Partners and Nestle's ice cream JV Froneri at an $18B valuation, including debt

  • Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum's petrochemical business OxyChem for $9.7B in cash

  • Canada's OTPP is exploring a sale of Portuguese packaging maker Logoplaste at a $2B valuation

  • Abu Dhabi holding conglomerate International Holding agreed to acquire a 41% stake in Indian shadow lender Sammaan Capital for $1B

  • TMT investor Zegona Communications is considering a sale of five data centers that came with its purchase of Vodafone's Spain unit at a $117M valuation

  • Uber acquired Belgium data labeling startup Segments.ai

  • Alphabet is planning a sale or spinoff of its life science unit Verily

  • Italian fashion group Armani approached potential buyers including beauty products giant L'Oreal for a minority stake sale

  • UK's Lloyds Banking Group is considering buying out asset manager Schroders' 49.9% stake in their Schroders Personal Wealth JV

  • Global car manufacturer Stellantis is mulling a sale of its car-sharing business Free2move

  • German industrial engineering conglomerate Thyssenkrupp ended talks with European industrial group EP Group on a potential JV for Steel Europe

VC

  • OpenAI sold $6.6B on secondary shares at a $500B valuation to SoftBank and others 

  • CyberCube, a cyber risk modeling and analytics company, raised $180M from Spectrum Equity

  • Feedzai, an AI-native risk ops platform for crime prevention, raised a $75M round at a $2B valuation from Lince Capital, Iberis Capital, and others

  • Pacaso, a tech-enabled marketplace for co-owned luxury vacation homes, raised a $72.5M Reg A+ round

  • Thought Machine, a UK cloud-based banking services provider, raised a $60M round from existing investors

  • AI-native observability platform Dash0 raised a $35M Series A led by Accel and Cherry Ventures

  • Security compliance startup Oneleet raised a $33M Series A led by Dawn Capital

  • Turkish mobile gaming company Cypher Games raised a $30M Series A led by The Raine Group and Play Ventures

  • Lastro, a Brazilian AI platform for real estate, raised a $16M Series A led by Prosus Ventures

  • Industrial deeptech startup TiHive raised a $9M round led by EIC Fund, Karista, and Wind

  • praxipal, an AI receptionist for healthcare front desks, raised a $6.7M seed round led by HV Capital

  • Returnalyze, an AI-powered returns prevention platform for retailers, raised a $6M Series A-1 led by Fintop Capital

  • fan3, an entertainment tech startup building a fan-first access platform for live events, raised $5M in funding from Improbable

  • Emblematic, a startup using agentic AI to streamline finance and accounting workflows, raised a $2M pre-seed round led by Passion Capital

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Advent and Cinven-backed German elevator operator TK Elevator hired banks for a Germany IPO; the firm was valued at $27B, including debt, earlier this year

  • German AI language platform DeepL is exploring a US IPO at a $5B valuation

  • Ninepoint Partners sold its 2.4% stake worth $110M in Canada's MEG Energy ahead of a vote on Cenovus Energy's $5.2B cash and stock takeover offer

Debt

  • Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is seeking to raise $7B in a pipeline network lease 

  • University of Texas increased part of its short-term lending program by 4% to $2.5B

  • Private credit firm Golub Capital sold a $427M CLO containing debt investments in MM companies

  • French lender Credit Agricole is prepping a $360M callable Canadian-dollar bond sale

  • French waste management firm Seche Environnement sold $350M of junk-rated green hybrid bonds in a rare such issue

  • Europe-based mining giant Glencore is prepping a callable Canadian-dollar bond sale

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Sweden's closure of $8.7B pension fund AP6 Fund is sparking fire sale fears due to PE assets

  • Senior creditors of struggling UK utility Thames Water sweetened their restructuring proposal, pledging $7.3B in cash and a 25% debt haircut

  • UBS funds have $500M unsecured debt exposure in First Brands' bankruptcy

  • Icelandic budget airline Fly Play ceased operations amid poor ticket sales and an unsuccessful turnaround plan

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • European PE firm CVC's credit unit raised $12.2B for its European private credit strategy

  • Blackstone raised $10B for its latest Asia buyout fund

  • Lower MM PE firm RCP Advisors raised $1.3B for its fifth secondaries fund

  • Lower MM energy transition investor Glentra Capital raised $940M for its debut fund

  • Brazil's Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China agreed to create a $1B fund to invest in energy transition, infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and AI

  • Private markets investor Siguler Guff raised $440M for its new credit fund targeting Brazil legal claims

  • UK asset manager M&G Investments raised a $350M commitment from Dutch pension KPN to launch an impact-focused private credit strategy

  • Danish VC 55North launched a $350M debut fund to invest in quantum startups

  • Southeast Asia-focused Indies Capital Partners raised $300M for its fourth private credit fund

  • Striker Venture Partners raised $165M for its debut fund to invest in just 10 startups, including pre-revenue and pre-product 

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Robinhood CEO sees tokenization of RWAs an unstoppable 'freight train' coming to major markets

  • Trump Jr. dismissed crypto conflicts of interest saying Trump barely cares

Crypto Sum summarizes the most important stories on crypto daily. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

  • Litquidity x Harbinger: Motor Mixer – Tuesday, October 14, Los Angeles

    Litquidity Ventures is partnering with Harbinger for yet another epic #LATechWeek event in October. We're hosting an intimate gathering of friends, investors, creators, and founders at an exclusive private car club in Westside, Los Angeles. Join us for an evening of meaningful conversations and connections. Spots are limited. RSVP here.

  • Test your (or your intern's) stock market history knowledge with this WSJ quiz.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting venture between Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners places talent at leading firms in PE, hedge funds, VC, growth, credit, IB, and fintech and is currently recruiting for some incredible roles. Head over to our website to drop your resume and we'd love to get in touch!

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and want to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can help as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They've grown their community to over 50k talented professionals and have deep relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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