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Good Morning,

US and Japan reached a trade deal, the PE boom is leaving midsize players behind, secondaries deals are shattering records, Microsoft poached over twenty AI researchers from Google, and meme stock fever among retail traders is back like its 2021.

Bitcoin Depot, the biggest Bitcoin ATM network in North America, has its eyes set on global expansion and wants the key retail trader segment to stay involved. Check out their investor insights.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks rose slightly yesterday as investors digested mixed earnings reports and looked ahead to crucial Big Tech and Mag 7 earnings

  • S&P closed at another ATH

• US corporate spreads are at their tightest since 1998 for the second time in eight months

Earnings

• Lockheed Martin missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as profit plunged 80% due to a $1.6B pretax loss linked to a classified Aeronautics program; revenue rose just 1% YoY and the firm cut its FY profit outlook by 18% (RT)

• Coca-Cola beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as strong demand in Europe offset weakness elsewhere; the company reiterated its FY organic revenue growth forecast and also announced a US launch of cane sugar Coke this fall (CNBC)

• General Motors beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates despite a $1.1B tariff hit; the firm will invest $4B to to bring key production back to US (CNBC)

• Capital One beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates following its $35B acquisition of Discover Financial; the reported a net loss due to acquisition-related costs, though net charge-offs came in lower than expected (BBG)

• RTX beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and raised its sales forecast on strong operational performance and a growing backlog that reached $236B, though it cut FY profit guidance due to tariffs and tax law changes (YH)

• Texas Instruments beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on a 16% YoY revenue increase, and forecasted a strong Q3 despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty from US tariff negotiations (RT)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Tesla, Alphabet, AT&T, IBM, Chipotle, General Dynamics

  • Thursday: American Airlines, Intel, Blackstone, Honeywell

  • Friday: Booz Allen Hamilton

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• US announced major trade deals with Japan and the Philippines.

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• US and Japan reached a trade deal (CNBC)

• US and China will discuss a tariff deadline extension (RT)

• Bessent sees 'no reason' for J Pow to step down now (BBG)

• Secondary sales hit a record $102B in H1 (P&I)

• PE boom is leaving midsize players behind (BBG)

• Bullish bond bets build as traders look to dovish Fed chair successor (BBG)

• De-risking mood adds more demand for US corporate bonds (RT)

• Hunt for yield skews intricate bond math in riskiest bank debt (BBG)

• Retail traders are flocking to heavily shorted stocks (BBG)

• Asian local FX bond sales hit a record on risks to dollar (BBG)

• Chinese investors snap up Hong Kong stocks as flows near record (BBG)

• SpaceX warned investors that Musk could return to US politics (BBG)

• BlackRock restricted use of company devices in China travel (BBG)

• Hershey will raise prices by 'double digits' amid record high cocoa costs (BBG)

• Microsoft poached over 20 researchers from Google in AI talent war (FT)

• Microsoft is offering bonuses to some survivors of its latest layoff round (BBG)

• Germany's Bosch will cut ~1.1k jobs (RT)

• Global LNG supply is expected to surge the most since 2019 next year (BBG)

• Tesla's California EV sales dropped for seventh-straight quarter (BBG)

A Message from Bitcoin Depot

Bitcoin Depot: The Company Putting Bitcoin on the Map

Ever thought about getting into Bitcoin but feel lost? Meet Bitcoin Depot (Nasdaq: BTM), the world’s largest Bitcoin ATM operator, with over 8,500 machines.

They're making Bitcoin accessible to everyone, providing a straightforward way to step into the world of digital currencies.

Here’s the key info from their Q1 earnings report:

• ✅ Revenue up 19% Year-Over-Year to $164.2M

• ✅ Net Income increased significantly to $12.2M

• ✅ Adjusted EBITDA soared 315% Year-Over-Year to $20.3M

• ✅ Leading market position with 27% of the U.S. market alone

• ✅ Recent stock buys from large asset management firms

Bitcoin Depot provides an access point for everyday users, generating revenue regardless of Bitcoin's price swings. The nearly $3 billion in transaction volume since 2016 demonstrates the scale of their operation.

The above is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice nor does it constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular financial instrument. Bitcoin Depot is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Nothing contained herein constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Bitcoin Depot to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Railroad giants BNSF and CSX hired bankers as Union Pacific sparked a rail M&A race with talks to merge with Norfolk Southern

• CapVest Partners is in talks to acquire a majority stake in German drugmaker Stada Arzneimittel at an ~$11.7B valuation, including debt

• $8.23-listed regional lender Synovus Financial is exploring a potential merger after attracting takeover interest

• French telecoms group Orange is in early talks to acquire the remaining 50% stake it doesn't own in Spanish telecom JV MasOrange from PE firms Cinven, KKR, and Providence for ~$5.9B

• CC Capital Partners agreed to take-private Australian wealth manager Insignia Financial for $2.2B

• UK foodservice firm Compass Group agreed to acquire a majority stake in Dutch caterer Vermaat from PE firm Bridgepoint at a $1.8B valuation

• French drugmaker Sanofi agreed to acquire UK biotech Vicebio for up to $1.6B in a cash and earnout structure

• Flywheel Energy is nearing a $1.3B acquisition of ConocoPhillips' Oklahoma assets

• Blackstone acquired a majority stake in network automation firm NetBrain at a $750M valuation

• Butterfly Equity-backed beverage and dressings maker Generous Brands agreed to acquire kombucha maker Health-Ade for $500M

• Spain's Nostrum is seeking to raise up to $468M in a 60% stake sale in its data center projects

• Carlyle agreed to acquire a majority stake in IT consultancy Adastra in a $400M deal, including debt

• Italian lender UniCredit dropped its takeover bid for rival Banco BPM, ending an eight-month standoff after failing to secure government approval

• Amazon agreed to acquire Bee, a maker of a wearable AI personal assistant

• Zara-founder Amancio Ortega's family office agreed to acquire a 49% stake in UK's PD Ports from Brookfield

• Oaktree-backed UK insurer Utmost Group is weighing a sale of its UK life and pensions unit ahead of a potential London IPO

• Astorg-backed investment services firm IQ-EQ acquired fund platform and services provider Gordian Capital

• Azerbaijan's state energy company Socar is considering selling its port unit in Turkey

• Abu Dhabi SWF Mubadala and French asset manager AXA IM Prime will acquire minority stakes in leading European private credit firm Hayfin Capital Management

VC

• AbsoluteCare, a value-based integrated health care provider, raised $135M in funding from Kinderhook Industries, CVS Health Ventures, Pacific Life, and Lexington Partners

• Makersite, a German startup helping manufacturers cut costs and reduce environmental impact, raised a $70M Series B led by Lightrock and Partech

• Inforcer, a UK-based software platform for MSPs, raised a $35M Series B led by Dawn Capital

• Delve, a startup building AI agents for compliance, raised a $32M Series A led by Insight Partners

• Robotics company Asylon raised a $26M Series B led by Insight Partners

• Composio, a startup building AI agents that improve over time, raised a $25M Series A led by Lightspeed Venture Partners

• Alix, an automated estate settlement platform, raised a $20M Series A led by Acrew Capital

• Steel and iron production startup Hertha Metals raised $17M in funding from Khosla Ventures, Pear VC, and more

• Poseidon, a decentralized AI data layer, raised a $15M seed round led by a16z Crypto 

• Scrunch AI, a startup helping brands understand and improve their presence in AI search, raised a $15M Series A led by Decibel

• Lyzer, a Portuguese logistics platform, raised an $11.8M round led by C2 Capital

• Cloaked, a consumer app for user identity protection, raised $11M in funding

• Cooler Heads, a medical device company focused on scalp cooling for chemo patients, raised an $11M Series A led by Mutual Capital Partners

• EV truck fleet startup Nevoya raised a $9.3M seed round led by Lowercarbon Capital

• Daylight Security, a startup blending AI and human expertise for cybersecurity, raised a $7M seed round led by Bain Capital Ventures

• Magentic, an AI agent platform that identifies savings across global supply chains, raised a $5.5M round led by Sequoia Capital

IPOs / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Household products conglomerate Ibex raised $1.5B in its 28% stake sale in Africa's largest clothing retailer Pepkor

• Advent and KKR-backed consumer market research firm NIQ Global Intelligence is expected to price its IPO at the midpoint of its marketed range to raise ~$1.1B

• $38B-listed Chinese medical device maker Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics is considering a Hong Kong secondary listing to raise $1B in what would be the biggest Hong Kong listing by a mainland firm

• Strategy is seeking to raise $500M in its latest preferred equity sale

• Saudi fitness firm Sport Clubs Co. surged 24% in its trading debut for a $266M valuation after its IPO which was 44 times oversubscribed 

• AI spine surgery firm Carlsmed raised $100M at a ~$400M valuation in its IPO

• VenHub, a developer of fully autonomous retail stores, plans to pursue a direct listing after scrapping earlier plans to go public via a SPAC

Debt 

• Valor Equity Partners, an investment firm with close ties to Musk, is in talks to raise $12B in private credit to buy and then lease advanced Nvidia chips to xAI

• Musk's xAI is seeking to raise $12B in private credit to fund data center expansion

• Mexico plans to raise $7B-$10B in a debt sale to support state oil firm Pemex

• General Electric sold $2B of investment-grade bonds in its first since the spinoffs of GE Healthcare and GE Vernova

• Blackstone is seeking $583M in financing secured by the Trocadero office complex in Paris

• Blackstone-backed Recognition Music Group plans to sell $372M in bonds backed by royalties from over 47k compositions, including tracks by Justin Bieber and Shakira

• A lender syndicate including JPMorgan structured a first-of-its-kind $210M lending facility for carbon credit developer Chestnut Carbon

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Local residents in upstate New York will acquire the bankrupt Cazenovia College campus for $9.5M, yielding bondholders a recovery rate just above 50%

Fundraising / Secondaries

• 17Capital, the world's largest dedicated NAV finance provider, raised $5.5B for its sixth strategic lending fund 

• Trilantic Capital Partners is seeking $1B for a multi-asset continuation fund for Fund VI at a discount of 30% to NAVs after raising only one-sixth of its target for Fund VII

• ACRE, a private real estate fund manager focused on US housing, raised $1B for its second credit fund

• Growth equity firm Glade Brook raised $515M for its fourth VC fund

• Digital asset-focused growth equity funds 10T and 1RoundTable Partners merged to form 50T and launched a $500M growth capital fundraise

• Brentwood Associates, one of the oldest PE firms in US, raised an oversubscribed $410M continuation fund for water kiosk firm Watermill Express

• Emerald Technology Ventures, a VC focused on sustainable investments, is seeking to raise up to $210M for a new water fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Citadel Securities asks SEC to tread cautiously on tokenization

• JPMorgan is exploring lending against clients' crypto holdings

• Telegram's crypto wallet is live in US 

• PNC partnered with Coinbase to give bank clients access to crypto

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

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• Tyler Cowen published a short piece explaining why Europe will likely never catch up to America, economically. His perspective is naturally insightful, but grab your popcorn before scrolling into the comments section🍿

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out our recruiting firm, Litney Partners. Established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners has placed strong candidates across leading firms spanning private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, private credit, investment banking, and fintech. Head over to our website to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

We are able to move faster than most firms due to our paralleled reach, decades of industry expertise, and ability to attract top caliber candidates.

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and/or are curious to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play reviews every submission and will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They’ve grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

Meme Cleanser

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☎️ Book a call with Lit: Want to pick Litquidity's brain on business advice, insights, or just chat to say what's up? Buy his time here.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.