Together with

Good Morning,

US stock markets remained closed yesterday but deal making and private markets activity continued to boom in a new year frenzy. Bond vigilantes seem to be waking up, with yields surging to multi-month highs.

Also, in the most unsurprising fashion, another major private credit deal entered the restructuring arena.

Affinity recently released their private capital predictions report for 2025, with majority of investors painting an optimistic picture for the year ahead. It's worth the read.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stock markets were closed yesterday in honor of Jimmy Carter

• US stocks inched upwards on Wednesday as investors digested the Fed's December minutes 

• MSCI EM index is down 10% from an October high

• US 10Y yield touched 4.73% on Wednesday, the highest since April 2024

• UK 10Y gilt yield is at 4.8%, the highest since 2008

  • US and UK 10Y yields are up 1% since September

• UK 30Y gilt yield topped 5.4%, the highest since 1998 

• China 1Y-5Y swap curve inverted as traders dial back rate cut bets

• Chinese yuan hit a 16-month low

• Pound posted its biggest three-day drop in two years

Earnings

• Jefferies topped Q4 earnings estimates on an over 200% YoY profit surge thanks to a rebound in M&A (BRN) 

• Albertsons beat Q3 earnings estimates and laid out a $1.5B cost-cutting plan after its failed merger with Kroger (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Delta, Walgreens, Constellation Brands

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Markets seem a little too optimistic about Trump's agenda. Or do they??? 👀

• Trade your predictions on a range of events legally, only on Kalshi. Get a $20 bonus when you deposit $100 with code LIT on signup!

Headline Roundup

• PE pulls back from exotic and controversial liquidity loans (BBG)

• PE faces fresh curbs in new Massachusetts law (BBG)

• PE turns to volleyball as financiers seek new sport frontiers (FT)

• Wall Street bonuses are expected to jump by ~10% at big banks (BBG)

• Fed minutes reveal worries about inflation and Trump impact (CNBC)

• Fed minutes show banks pushed back expected end to QT to June (RT)

• US firms added the fewest jobs since August (BBG)

• US hiring announcements last year were the lowest in nine years (RT)

• Euro zone economy ended 2024 on downbeat note (RT)

• China consumer inflation was virtually flat last year (RT)

• PBOC will temporarily halt government bond buying (BBG)

• Bankers say Japan's $230B M&A boom will get even bigger (BBG)

• Bond market selloff jolts global investors as Trump worries grow (RT)

• Rising yields prompt record new year US corporate bond issuance (RT)

• Foreigners turned net sellers of Japanese stocks to lock in 2024 gains (RT)

• Chinese money rushes offshore via Hong Kong mutual funds (RT)

• Bill Ackman is chasing a 1,200% profit on a Trump trade (BBG)

• Activist investor demands push up stock prices but not for long (RT)

• Morgan Stanley promoted 173 to MD (RT)

• Apollo will boost hiring in Japan and Asia wealth (RT)

• BlackRock joined big banks to quit key climate group (RT)

• Shareholders urge UnitedHealth to analyze impact of claim denials (RT)

• Two Sigma founders head to arbitration after years-long feud (BBG)

• Musk called on California and Delaware to force auction of OpenAI stake (FT)

• Nvidia CEO sees decades before useful quantum computing (RT)

• F1-owner Liberty Media named Derek Chang as new CEO (WSJ)

• Germany's second-biggest fintech shuns IPO (FT)

• Hershey wants permission to buy more cocoa futures than allowed (BBG)

• Africa gets a new stock market in Ethiopia (BBG)

• LA wildfire losses topped $50B (RT)

A Message from Affinity

What's in store for private capital in 2025?

With ongoing economic challenges and funding getting concentrated with fewer, established managers, many private capital investors took a more cautious approach to dealmaking in 2024. However, data from Affinity's private capital predictions report reveals a more optimistic picture for the year ahead. 

More than 70% of the investors they surveyed expect to close more deals in 2025, with many ramping up their focus on outbound sourcing. Find out what's fueling this optimism and the strategies you can use to snap up more high-quality deals. 

View the report to uncover:

• Why investors are turning up the notch on deal sourcing

• How firms are using AI to tackle data complexities

• What investors are doing to stand out amidst greater competition 

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Constellation Energy is nearing an acquisition of power company Calpine, which is owned by Energy Capital Partners, Canada's CPPIB, and Access Industries, at a potential $30B valuation, including debt

• SoftBank and its majority-owned chipmaker Arm are exploring an acquisition of semiconductor designer Ampere Computing, which was last valued at $8B in 2021

• Virginia Transformer is exploring a sale at an over $6B valuation

• PE firm Warburg Pincus is weighing a sale of medical software provider Modernizing Medicine at an over $5B valuation, including debt

• An investor group including CVC, General Atlantic, HPS, and Leonard Green is in talks to buy BlackRock's equity stake in Authentic Brands at a potential $3B valuation

• KKR and Canada's PSP Investments agreed to acquire a 20% stake in American Electric Power's transmission business for $2.8B

• $1.6B-listed troubled French video-game developer Ubisoft Entertainment is exploring options, including going private

• UK drugmaker GSK is in talks to buy cancer drug developer IDRx for $1B

• Bauer Media will acquire advertising company Clear Channel Outdoor's Europe-North business for $625M cash

• US healthcare network Transcarent agreed to acquire healthcare provider Accolade for $621M cash

• A consortium of British financier Edi Truell's companies made a $301M takeover offer for UK banknote printer De La Rue

• JCPenney will merge with Sparc Group, the owner of Forever 21, Aéropostale, Brooks Brothers, and others, to form Catalyst Brands

• Apollo co-founder Leon Black is in talks to lead the acquisition of UK newspaper Telegraph

VC

• Infinite Reality, an AI-powered immersive tech and XR startup, raised a $3B round at a $12.25B valuation

• DDN, a provider of AI and data intelligence solutions, raised $300M at a $5B valuation from Blackstone

• Innovaccer, a an AI platform for healthcare, raised a $275M Series F from B Capital Group, Banner Health, M12, and more

• Livestream shopping app Whatnot raised a $265M Series E at a $4.97B valuation co-led by Avra, DST Global, and Greycroft

• Hippocratic AI, an AI-based LLM for healthcare, raised a $141M Series B at a $1.64B valuation led by Kleiner Perkins

• Irish marine robotics startup Xocean raised $119M from S2G Ventures 

• Leyden Labs, a non-vaccine approach to protect people from respiratory viruses, raised $70M in funding led by ClavystBio and Polaris Partners

• Cross-border payments startup Nomupay raised a $37M round at a $200M valuation led by Uneti Ventures and Endeit Capital

• Air, a purpose-built platform for creative operations, raised a $35M Series B led by Avenir Growth

• Zeto, a medical tech company focused on EEG diagnostics, raised a $31M Series B led by MindWorks Global

• Turkish gaming startup Grand Games raised a $30M round led by Balderton

• Qualified Health, a startup providing infrastructure for GenAI in healthcare, raised a $30M seed round led by SignalFire, Healthier Capital, and more

• Insurtech platform Matic Insurance Services raised $30M from Vistara Growth

• Gridware, a startup building a device that listens for electrical problems, raised a $26.4M Series A led by Sequoia

• PDQ, a tech for retailers to customize and test different shipping and checkout flows, raised a $25M Series A led by PeakSpan Capital

• Sapient Intelligence, a Singaporean AI startup, raised a $22M seed round at a $200M+ valuation

• Frontier Direct Care, an employer-funded healthcare startup, raised a $20M Series B led by Mehshah Capital

• SoSoValue, a Singaporean AI-driven investment research platform, raised a $15M Series A led by HSG and SmallSpark

• Nema Health, a virtual PTSD treatment platform, raised a $14.5M Series A led by Deerfield Management

• Truewind, an AI-powered bookkeeping and finance software, raised a $13M Series A led by Rho Capital and Thomson Reuters Ventures

• Ubiety Technologies, a downloadable home insights, security and smart home solution, raised a $10M Series A-1 led by Delta Global

• Twentyeight Health, a digital-first women's healthcare platform, raised a $10M Series A led by Seae Ventures

• Solaxy, a layer-2 scaling solution for Solana, raised $8.9M in presale funding

• Biosphere, a UV sterilizing tech for bio-manufacturing, raised an $8.8M seed round led by Lowercarbon Capital and VXI Capital

• Mintoak, an Indian SaaS platform for banks and merchant acquirers, raised a $10.9M secondary funding round from Z3Partners

• Irish regtech Dataships raised a $7M Series A led by Osage Ventures Partners

• Prudentia Sciences, a AI-powered platform for life sciences dealmaking, raised $7M in funding led by GV

• Advanced Ionics, a developer of green hydrogen electrolyzers, raised $6.7M in funding from JERA, Lummus Venture Capital, and more

• SignPath, a cybersecurity startup for software supply chain, raised a $5M Series A led by TIN Capital

• Abstract, a legislative and regulatory platform, raised a $4.8M seed round led by Bonfire Ventures and Communitas Capital

• Rena Labs, a startup enabling the next generation of autonomous and verifiable AI solutions, raised a $3.3M pre-seed round led by Paper Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• $20B-listed Italian cable infrastructure firm Prysmian will seek a dual listing in US

• Medtech Brainlab is preparing a Frankfurt IPO at a potential $2.1B valuation

• PE firms Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus are preparing an IPO of Dutch telecoms group Odido that could raise over $1.1B

• Chinese cloud-computing and IT infrastructure firm Unisplendour is preparing a secondary Hong Kong listing that could raise $1B

• Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing jumped 30% in its trading debut after its $320M Saudi IPO 

• Vanguard increased its stake in independent power producer Talen Energy to 10.4%

• PIF-backed cooling firm Saudi Tabreed District Cooling is preparing a local IPO

Debt

• India's state-owned National Bank for Financing Infrastructure & Development plans to raise $4.7B from the local debt market 

• Car battery maker Clarios International launched a $4.5B loan deal to fund a dividend recap to owners Brookfield and CDPQ

• Poland raised $3.1B in a eurobond sale

• Chile's state copper miner Codelco sold $1.5B in bonds to help fund record investments 

• Deutsche Bank will acquire an $800M portfolio of soured loans from UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Defaulted Chinese developer Country Garden proposed new terms with key banks that would slash up to $11.6B of debt and lower borrowing costs

• Lenders including Antares, Blue Owl, and KKR are preparing to take over insurance claims manager Alacrity Solutions in a restructuring that will convert half their debt to equity and wipe out BlackRock's $560M of equity

• Private hospital operator Prospect Medical is exploring a restructuring amid financial challenges

• Swedish construction firm Serneke Sverige, which is owned by German investment group Mutares, filed for bankruptcy

Fundraising

• Growth equity firm FTV Capital raised $4B across two new funds

• PE firm Vistria closed its fifth fund at $3B to invest in US healthcare and financial services

• Blackstone raised over $1B for a new infrastructure fund for wealthy individuals

• Medtech investor Vensana Capital closed its third fund at $425M

• Infrastructure investment firm White Summit Capital raised $360M for a decarbonization fund

• Healthcare-focused growth equity firm Valspring closed its debut fund at $255M

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Gary Gensler blasts crypto market on his way out of SEC

• Check out Crypto Sum for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

• Michael Batnick briefly opined on why the CAPE ratio should be higher today than it was in the past.

• Albert Bridge Capital's CIO published some insightful data on the recent divergence of US and European equity markets.

• Bloomberg explained how analyst job cuts on Wall Street are reshaping equity research.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

Meme Cleanser

🛒 Merch Store: Visit our merch store to shop our latest apparel, shoes, bags, accessories and more. 

💵 Litquidity Ventures: Accredited investors & qualified purchasers within the Litquidity community can gain access to alternative investments such as venture, late-stage growth, and private equity through Litquidity Ventures. Interested? Fill out this form.

☎️ Book a call with Lit: Want to pick Litquidity's brain on business advice, insights, or just chat to say what's up? Buy his time here.

📧 Launch your own newsletter: Have great content ideas and looking to launch your own publication? We highly recommend Beehiiv to get started.