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Global M&A volumes nearly broke records, Nasdaq sees an even bigger 2026 for billion-dollar IPOs, Wells Fargo IB had its best year ever, Blackstone's CEO said data centers are not a bubble, and OpenAI is in talks to raise $100 billion.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 12/18/2025 market close.

Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks rallied yesterday as traders digested optimistic inflation data and global central bank rate decisions

    • S&P snapped a four-day losing streak

  • UK's FTSE 100 rose to near ATHs after BoE cut rates

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 surged to near ATHs after ECB held rates 

  • Japan 10Y yield hits 2% for the first time since 2006 after BOJ raised rates

  • Gold and silver hovered near record highs

  • One-month volatility in G10 currencies slid to 5.8% to its lowest since 2022

    • One-month pound volatility dropped to its lowest since 2014

    • One-month euro volatility dropped to its lowest since July 2024

Earnings

  • Accenture beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates on strong demand for its AI-driven IT services (RT)

  • Nike beat Q2 revenue estimates but missed on earnings as tariffs and a prolonged turnaround drove a 3% margin drop (RT)

  • FedEx issued a Q2 beat-and-raise citing strength in B2B demand and tailwinds from AI data center growth (CNBC)

  • CarMax beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates but profits and volumes declined YoY as retail used-unit sales fell 8% despite price cuts aimed at drawing back budget-conscious shoppers (WSJ)

  • Darden Restaurants missed Q2 earnings estimates but beat on revenue and raised its FY outlook as value promotions drove traffic at Olive Garden and LongHorn (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Carnival

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • The doves are coming back to their senses. Unless you're betting against Fed independence…

  • Trade the 2026 path of Fed rate policy on Polymarket

Headline Roundup

  • Top Fed candidates disagree on everything except rate cuts (RT)

  • US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in delayed November reading (CNBC)

  • ECB held rates steady at 2% (CNBC)

  • BoE cut rates to 3.75% in divided vote (CNBC)

  • BOJ raised rates to 0.75% to a three-decade high (CNBC)

  • China launched a $110B free-trade experiment on Hainan island (RT)

  • 'Make Europe Great Again' trades hinges on German comeback (RT)

  • Global M&A volumes nearly broke records with even more set for 2026 (RT)

  • Nasdaq sees even bigger year ahead for billion-dollar IPOs (RT)

  • US CLO sales hit a fresh record this year (BBG)

  • Wells Fargo IB had its best year ever (WSJ)

  • JPMorgan reclaimed top spot on US high-grade bond league table (BBG)

  • Private credit's secret weapon for deal flow is buying up bank loans (BBG)

  • Blackstone's CEO says data center business is not a bubble (BBG)

  • Tesla's 'Musk premium' in focus ahead of SpaceX IPO (BBG)

  • Goldman and JPMorgan see record India IPO boom extending to 2026 (BBG)

  • India's historic financial reforms target wave of foreign money (BBG)

  • Major banks won bid to block $3.6B UK lawsuit over alleged FX rigging (RT)

  • Fed terminated demands for Citigroup to improve risk controls (RT)

  • Prudential Financial put key units under CEO in leadership overhaul (RT)

  • Catastrophe bonds linked to wildfires lose 'untouchable' status (BBG)

  • PE investor Pennetta was charged in sham Anduril pre-IPO fraud (RT)

  • Meta is developing a new image/video AI model code-named 'Mango' (WSJ)

  • US DOE tapped Big Tech for 'Genesis Mission' AI push (RT)

  • Brown and MIT professor shooting suspect was found dead by suicide (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Warner Bros. Discovery-shareholder Harris Associates is encouraging Paramount Skydance to increase its $108B hostile bid for WBD

  • Hedge fund Standard General in talks to acquire all or part of Warner Bros. Discovery's cable networks including CNN

  • Trump Media agreed to merge with Google-backed nuclear fusion developer TAE Technologies in a $6B all-stock deal

  • Law firms Hogan Lovells and Cadwalader agreed to merge to form a $3.6B Big Law powerhouse

  • TikTok-owner ByteDance agreed to form a JV for TikTok US which will see a consortium comprising Oracle, PE firm Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi SWF MGX take a 50% stake and ByteDance and existing investors keep 20% and 30% respectively

  • Pershing Square-backed developer Howard Hughes will acquire specialty insurer Vantage for $2.1B, with Pershing Square investing $1B to back the deal

  • BNP Paribas in exclusive talks to buy Mercedes-Benz's car-leasing unit Athlon for $1.2B

  • Italian fintech Nexi rejected a $1.15B binding offer from PE firm TPG for its digital banking solutions unit

  • Francisco Partners is considering a $1B sale of DNA testing service and genealogy platform MyHeritage

  • Highland Group Mining, a company run by Tether's founder, acquired Peak Mining, the Bitcoin-mining business of Tether-owned German AI data centre operator Northern Data, for $200M

  • Spirits company Illva Saronna agreed to acquire beverage brands Averna and Zedda Piras from Italian drinks conglomerate Campari for $117.5M

VC

  • OpenAI is in talks to raise $100B at an $830B valuation

  • Vibe-coding startup Lovable raised a $330M Series B at a $6.6B valuation led by CapitalG and Menlo Ventures

  • NYSE-owner ICE is in talk to invest in crypto payments firm MoonPay at a $5B valuation

  • Advanced Machine Intelligence, the AI startup founded by Meta's ex-AI chief Yann LeCun, is in early talks to raise $585M at a $3.5B valuation

  • Exein, an Italian connected-device cybersecurity startup, raised a $217M round led by Blue Cloud Ventures 

  • AI drug discovery start-up Chai Discovery raised a $130M Series B at a $1.3B valuation led by General Catalyst and Oak HC/FT

  • AI-driven research startup Edison Scientific raised a $70M seed round led by Triatomic Capital, Spark Capital, and a major biotech investor   

  • EtherealX, an Indian startup building a fully reusable launch vehicle, is closing a $21M Series A co-led by TDK Ventures and BIG Capital

  • AI MEP-design startup Endra raised a $20M seed round led by Notion Capita. 

  • AI service desk startup Thread raised an $18M growth round led by Susquehanna Growth Equity 

  • AI creator-economy platform Humanz raised a $15M round and acquired Ubiquitous and Bambassadors

  • Enlightra, an optical-interconnect startup for AI data centers, raised a $15M round from Y Combinator, Runa Capital, Pegasus Tech Ventures, and more  

Get real-time updates on any startup, VC, or sector. Try Fundable.

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Activist hedge fund Elliott is wooing investors to push Toyota to improve its $30B take-private bid for Toyota Industries after taking a 5% stake worth $1.7B in the latter

  • Elliot built a $1B stake in struggling athletic apparel retailer lululemon

  • Elliott is preparing to IPO US and UK bookstores Barnes & Noble and Waterstones in New York or London next year

Debt

  • EU will lend $105B to Ukraine, borrowed against EU's shared budget after a plan to use frozen Russian assets failed

  • Abu Dhabi state-owned oil giant ADNOC secured $11B in funding for its gas production project

  • Crypto miner TeraWulf-backed data center developer Flash Compute is seeking to sell $1.3B of junk bonds to fund a data center

  • India's HDFC Bank raised $1B in overseas loans from Asian lenders

  • Blackstone completed a $595M CMBS deal backed by UK warehouses to fund its $654M LBO of UK's Warehouse REIT

  • Kyrgyzstan is planning further international bond sales following its debut $700M dollar bond sale in May

  • Indian state-owned Bank of Baroda raised $500M in overseas loans from Asian lenders

  • BC Partners raised $410M in private credit from Ares to back its $940M purchase of Italian shipping and fulfillment services firm Fortidia

  • Dubai-based multifamily office Patrimium raised $100M in NAV financing from Ares

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • The administrator of collapsed crypto firm Terraform Labs sued Jump Trading for $4B for illegally profiting from and accelerating the firm's 2022 collapse

  • Brazilian banks agreed to $3.6B in combined losses, accepting derivatives with uncertain recovery for loans to failed civil construction firm Odebrecht

  • Collapsed sub-prime auto lender Tricolor's $1B fraud was caught due to an Excel mistake according to a secretly recorded phone call

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Germany launched Deutschlandfonds to attract $150B in private investments for high-risk projects in infrastructure and defense, anchored by state development bank KfW and seeded with $35B in public money and loan guarantees

  • VC Accel is seeking to raise $4B for its fifth growth equity fund 

  • VC S3 Ventures raised $250M for its eighth fund to continue focusing on Texas startups

  • Dutch PE firm Standard Investment raised $175M for its fifth flagship fund

  • Credit hedge fund Whitehaven will return LP money and become a family office

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • US crypto industry cheers 2025 wins but party may fizzle next year

  • Coinbase pushes into stocks and prediction markets as retail battle heats up

  • North Korea stole $2B in crypto this year

  • Lending fintech SoFi launched its own dollar-backed stablecoin on Ethereum

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec’s Picks

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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