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Good Morning,

A wave of global central bank rate cuts, combined with China's stimulus, Trump's tariff threat, and US inflation, sent FX markets all over the place yesterday.

Elsewhere, a court battle is shining light on short-seller secret alliances, Bain is doing pro bono work to win trust after South Africa's ban, and Trump advisers want to eliminate bank regulators.

Level up your career with Wharton Online and Wall Street Prep's globally acclaimed Private Equity Certificate Program. Early enrollment ends soon!

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

Markets

• US stocks dipped yesterday as investors assessed economic data for clues on the rate path ahead

  • Dow fell for a sixth-straight day

• China's CSI 300 fell 2.4% as stimulus announcements failed to impress

• Long-term Treasuries are on track for their worst week in a year 

  • US 30Y yield is up 22 bps WTD

  • Treasury market volatility slumped to a three-year low

• Dollar rose to a 2.5-week high on track for its best week in a month

• Pound is trading near its highest versus euro since the 2016 Brexit vote

• Yen dropped 1.7% vs dollar as traders pared BOJ rate hike bets

• EM currencies are down 5% QTD on course for its biggest quarterly drop in two years

Earnings

• Costco beat Q1 EPS and revenue estimates on strong growth across e-commerce, foot traffic, and discretionary consumer spending (CNBC) 

• Broadcom jumped 14% after beating Q4 earnings and forecasting better-than-expected Q1 revenue on soaring demand for GenAI infrastructure (CNBC) 

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Lots of talk about the path of rate cuts…but what about the man behind the rates?

• Trade your predictions on a range of notable events legally, only on Kalshi. Get a $20 bonus when you deposit $100 with with code LIT on signup!

Headline Roundup

• US producer inflation rose 3% in the most since February 2023 (CNBC)

• ECB cut rates for a fourth time to 3% (CNBC)

• Switzerland cut rates by surprise 50 bps to 0.5% (CNBC)

• UK GDP fell for a second-straight month (CNBC)

• Trump advisers seek to shrink or eliminate bank regulators (WSJ)

• Wall Street hopes rate cuts will force clients out of cash in 2025 (RT)

• China pledged bigger fiscal spending to boost consumption (BBG)

• Bond markets have become more sensitive to data releases (BBG)

• Weaker private credit is poised for further rise in defaults, downgrades (BBG)

• PIMCO warned of potential 'hidden' hazards of bank risk transfers (BBG)

• Short sellers' secret alliances emerge in court battle (BBG)

• Global ETF assets soared to $15T (FT)

• Cheap valuations Japan strategy has run out of steam (BBG)

• India options frenzy volume tanked 90% after crackdown (BBG)

• NY Fed Markets Group chief Michelle Neal resigned (BBG)

• JPMorgan named Hersey CEO Michele Buck to the board (RT)

• FDIC added two more to 'problem bank' list (RT)

• CFPB capped bank overdraft fees (RT)

• US power deals dropped 36% this year due to political uncertainty (RT)

• Deutsche Bank named a new chief risk officer (WSJ)

• HSBC is reviewing its retail bank outside UK and Hong Kong (FT)

• Bain makes South Africa comeback bid despite government ban (BBG)

• Activist Starboard took a stake in Bitcoin-miner Riot (WSJ)

• Intel execs say a manufacturing spinoff is possible (RT)

• Warner Discovery will restructure its operations to open door to M&A (WSJ)

• Global EV sales hit a third consecutive record high (RT)

• Norway campaigns to cut energy links to Europe as prices soar (FT)

• UK hedge fund trader Shah got 12 years in prison over 'cum-ex' tax fraud (FT)

• Amazon will donate $1M to Trump's inauguration fund (WSJ)

• Trump invited Chinese president Xi Jinping to his inauguration (BBG)

• US household wealth rose to a new record high (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Bausch + Lomb, the $6.6B-listed eye care subsidiary of Bausch Health, is exploring a sale

• Blackstone will acquire the mixed-use Garden Terrace Kioicho complex in Tokyo from Seibu Holdings for $2.6B in Japan's largest-ever real estate investment by a foreign fund

• Bain Capital offered to buy Australian financial services firm Insignia Financial in a $1.7B deal

• SoftwareOne is nearing a deal to acquire $1.1B-listed Norwegian rival Crayon

• PE firm Warburg Pincus agreed to acquire a 20% stake in UK specialty lender United Trust Bank at a $663M valuation

• O&G firm Kosmos Energy is in early talks to acquire $484M-UK listed Tullow Oil in an all-stock deal

• Disruptive Capital and Pension SuperFund Capital are in talks to acquire an up to 40% stake in $280M-listed UK banknote printer De La Rue

• Nigeria's Access Bank offered to acquire South African lender Bidvest Bank for $159M

• Marriott International will acquire cabin rental firm Postcard Cabins

• Management and Soros Fund Management acquired viral talk-show Hot Ones from BuzzFeed for $82.5M 

VC

• AI infrastructure provider Crusoe raised a $600M Series D at a $2.8B valuation led by Founders Fund

• Defense VTOL startup Archer Aviation raised a $430M round from Stellantis, United, Wellington Management, and others

• Upvest, a white label investment platform for fintechs, raised a $105M Series C led by Hedosophia

• Fleet Space, an Australian space exploration startup, raised a $100M Series D at a $525M valuation led by OTPP

• Gigs, a startup streamlining MVNO processes, raised a $73M Series B led by Ribbit Capital

• AI-powered email security platform Sublime Security raised a $60M Series B led by IVP

• Evinced, a startup helping companies make software accessible, raised a $55M Series C led by Insight Partners

• Haber, an AI-powered industrial startup, raised a $44M Series C led by Creaegis, BEENEXT, and Accel

• Twelve Labs, a startup building AI models to understand videos, raised a $30M round from SK Telecom, Databricks, Snowflake, and others

• Jiko, a platform for seamless access to US Treasuries, raised a $29M Series C led by Upfront Ventures

• Members-only charge card and concierge service Atlas Card raised a $27M Series B led by Marathon

• Embotech, a Swiss autonomous driving solutions for industrial logistics, raised a $27M Series B led by Emerald Technology Ventures and Yttrium

• Six-a-side soccer league Baller League raised a $25M round led by EQT 

• Cartesia, a startup building efficient AI model architecture, raised a $22M round led by Index Ventures

• Vapi, a developer platform for deploying voice AI agents, raised a $20M Series A led by Bessemer Venture Partners

• Cofactr, a supply chain and logistics management platform, raised a $17M Series A led by Bain Capital Ventures

• Azimuth AI, a startup producing customized silicon products for edge and embedded computing, raised an $11.5M round led by Cyient and Moneta Ventures

• Eureka Robotics, a startup developing AI robotics for precision manufacturing, raised a $10.5M Series A led by B Capital

• Embeddable, a UK embedded data analytics startup, raised a $6.3M seed round led by OpenOcean

• Tuva Health, an open-source healthcare data transformation platform, raised a $5M seed round led by Virtue

• Australian AI retail sales analytics startup GoodWork.ai raised a $4M seed round led by Square Peg

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT raised $1.3B in Australia's largest IPO in six years

• Huawei's EV partner Seres is considering a second listing in Hong Kong that could raise over $1B

• Indian retail chain Vishal Mega Mart's $944M IPO sold out on the second day 

• Home services software firm ServiceTitan rose 42% to a ~$9B valuation in its trading debut after its $625M IPO

Debt

• CVC-backed Swedish property manager Odevo raised $1.4B in private credit from Ares and Blackstone

• Sixth Street and Carlyle's AlpInvest are backing Essential Pharma's $942M recapitalization with growth debt and structured equity

• Japan's Nippon Life Insurance will invest an additional $550 million in US asset management firm TCW Group via convertible notes and preferred securities

• State Bank of India is seeking a $197M yen facility led by Mitsubishi UFJ

• Brazilian meatpacking giant JBS raised $155M in its first US short-term debt sale ever

Fundraising

• Carlyle raised $5.7B for its third flagship credit fund

Crypto Corner

• BlackRock recommends allocating 2% of portfolio to Bitcoin (BBG)

• Texas introduced a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve (CNBC)

• Pro-crypto French Hill will chair the House Financial Services Committee (CT)

Exec’s Picks

• ICYMI: we recently compiled the most comprehensive and practical 2024 HOLIDAY GIFT GUIDE🎅🏼. Whether you're shopping for friends, family, colleagues, s/o, or even your pet, we've got solid recommendations for you. Take a look!

• Bloomberg released their detailed report on the world's richest families of 2024.

• Ryan Detrick at Carson Group shared an insightful piece reminding us that bull markets don't typically last just a couple of years.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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