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Bond Markets Aren't Yielding

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Good Morning,

OnlyFans is exploring a sale, US banned Harvard from enrolling international students, US warned asset managers that ESG violates antitrust laws, Stifel is testing markets with a rare private credit portfolio sale, term premiums are rising across the globe, and Trump's agenda is taking shape in Congress.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 5/22/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks closed flat yesterday as investors continued to watch for rising yields 

  • Gold is up 3% WTD for its best week in one month

  • Platinum hit a one-year high as markets weigh a shortage

  • Dollar is set for its first weekly drop in five weeks

  • Bitcoin hit a new ATH

Earnings

  • Workday beat Q1 earnings estimates and met on revenue but issued lackluster Q2 revenue outlook despite new AI tools aimed at capitalizing on labor market disruptions from AI; the firm is cutting jobs in a broad profitability push (BBG)

  • Ralph Lauren beat Q4 earnings and revenue estimates but warned of slowing growth due to weakening US consumer spending and also announced modest price hikes to offset tariffs (BBG)

  • TD Bank Group beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates driven by gains from its Charles Schwab stake sale, though rising loan-loss provisions and tariff-related economic concerns weighed on the outlook (WSJ)

  • Ross beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates but pulled its FY profit outlook amid tariff uncertainty and limited visibility into H2, with over 50% its inventory sourced from China (BBG)

  • Intuit beat Q1 earnings and revenue, and FY forecast estimates on a strong tax season and growth in QuickBooks and TurboTax (CNBC)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Booz Allen Hamilton

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Trump's agenda is taking shape in Congress. While many have their qualms, nobody is making it more known than bond traders.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • US House passed Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' including no tax on tips (WSJ)

  • SCOTUS shielded Fed from Trump's firing spree, calling it a 'uniquely structured, quasi-private entity' (BBG

  • PE megafunds are reducing leverage in changing market dynamic (BBG

  • Jamie Dimon agreed with Fed rate hold despite stagflation risk (BBG)

  • Long-term yields are rising globally as vigilantes step in (RT

  • Private credit eyes gap in US infrastructure as federal funding dips (BBG)

  • Emerging VCs are on track to raise the least capital in a decade (BBG)

  • Traders venture into FX market that merges spot and futures (BBG)

  • US warned asset managers of antitrust violations in ESG policies (FT)

  • Jamie Dimon defended CATL listing deal despite opposition (BBG)

  • Brookfield expects India assets to grow 300% in five years (BBG)

  • PR firm GTCR is set to return $5B to LPs this year (BBG)

  • Ex-McKinsey partner who advised opioid maker Purdue Pharma was sentenced to prison (RT)

  • Nomura lifted top execs' pay to highest in a decade (BBG)

  • Goldman Sachs combined three Asia IB divisions under new head (RT)

  • Collapsed startup Builder.ai overestimated sales by 300% to creditors (BBG)

  • Tinder CEO Faye Iosotaluno stepped down in latest shakeup (BBG)

  • Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stasuholm will step down in surprise move (RT)

  • Google is facing another US antitrust probe related to AI (BBG)

  • FTC dismissed PepsiCo's antitrust lawsuit (BBG)

  • US will end penny production (BBG)

  • BYD overtook Tesla in Europe for first time on 169% sales surge (BBG)

  • TD Bank Group will layoff 2% of workforce amid restructuring (BBG)

  • MIT will cut grad school enrollment amid US funding cuts (BBG)

  • US banned Harvard from enrolling foreigners (BBG)

A Message from Starfighters Space

SpaceX dominates orbit with over 3,000 satellites, but it's not the only private player.

Starfighters Space is on a mission to build the 'Uber of Space' and they're inviting individual investors to help them expand.

Starfighters is building a new path to orbit using Mach 2+ jets instead of rockets, offering faster, cheaper, on-demand small satellite launches.

They're already live at Kennedy Space Center in their fight for the final frontier and have recently opened a private capital fundraise.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • OnlyFans is in talks to sell itself at an ~$8B valuation, while also weighing an IPO

  • Engineering conglomerate Honeywell agreed to acquire UK chemicals firm Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies unit for $2.4B cash

  • German steel and industrial conglomerate Salzgitter is considering selling its bottling machine unit KHS for up to $1.1B

  • European PE firm EQT agreed to acquire water-treatment provider Seven Seas Water from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners at an over $1B valuation, including debt

  • Steel tycoon Aditya Mittal is investing $1B in Bill Chisholm's group buying NBA's Boston Celtics for $6.1B

  • French pharma giant Sanofi will acquire US biotech Vigil Neuroscience in a $470M deal

  • LatAm telecom operator Millicom agreed to acquire Spanish telecom firm Telefónica's Uruguay unit for $440M

  • Native American Mohegan Tribe is weighing a sale of WNBA's Connecticut Sun, with Boston as a possible destinations

VC

  • Mobile app monetization startup RevenueCat raised a $50M Series C at a $500M valuation led by Bain Capital Ventures

  • trawa, a German electricity provider and AI-powered software company, raised a $27M Series A led by Headline

  • OpenFX, an FX infrastructure platform for cross-border payments, raised a $23M round led by Accel

  • Pixee, a startup providing solutions for security teams, raised a $15M seed round led by Decibel and Wing VC

  • Rhino Federated Computing, a platform for federated AI collaboration, raised a $15M Series A led by AlleyCorp

  • Insurance and HR tech startup Kota raised a $14.5M Series A led by Eurazeo

  • Alt Carbon, a startup scale CO2 removal work in India, raised a $12M seed round led by Lachy Groom

  • StackHawk, the 'shift-left' API security platform, raised $12M in strategic funding from Sapphire and Costanoa Ventures

  • Axle Health, a startup building a healthcare logistics platform, raised a $10M Series A led by F-Prime

  • Perpl, a decentralized perpetual contract exchange, raised a $9.3M round led by Dragonfly Capital

  • Jupus, a German legal tech startup, raised a $7.3M seed round led by Acton Capital

  • Tomorrow.Bio, Europe's first cryonics lab, raised a $5.6M seed round led by Blast.Club and Truventuro

  • Penfold, a UK platform offering a digital corporate pension plan, raised $5.2M in funding led by Gresham House Ventures

  • PiLogic, a startup building 'exact AI' for the defense and space industries, raised a $4M seed round led by Scout Ventures and Seraphim Space

  • Gut health AI toilet startup Throne raised a $4M seed round led by Moxxie Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Tiger Global and Insight Partners backed-Hinge Health jumped 17% in its trading debut after raising $437M in an IPO priced at the top of its range

  • Ryan Reynolds' connected TV advertising platform MNTN rose 65% in its trading debut after raising $187M in an IPO which was ~14x oversubscribed

  • Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square took a stake in Amazon

Debt

  • Porsche launched an $850M Schuldschein (promissory note) sale, the largest-ever marketed luxury auto debt sale

  • Telecom Argentina sold $800M in international bonds following its acquisition of Telefonica's Argentine unit despite fierce government opposition

  • Canadian pension OMERS' real estate arm Oxford Properties is preparing a $505M bond sale

  • EQT-owned Fitness Passport is seeking an $322M syndicated loan to fund a dividend recap and debt refinancing

  • Investment bank Stifel is seeking buyers for $250M of private credit held by a client

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Defaulted Chinese developer Country Garden secured ~75% bondholder support for a $14B offshore debt restructuring ahead of a Hong Kong liquidation hearing next week

  • Major NYC landlord Pinnacle Group put thousands of NYC residential properties into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, halting foreclosures initiated by Flagstar Bank

  • Am investor group led by Quebec real estate tycoon Vincent Chiara is set to rescue bankrupt EV bus maker Lion Electric through a reverse vesting order, preserving certifications but leaving shareholders and most creditors with no proceeds

  • India's Bajaj Auto will take control of insolvent Austrian motorcycle maker KTM as part of a $906M debt package aimed at reviving the firm

Fundraising

  • Consumer-focused VC Emil Capital Partners rebranded to ECP Growth after raising $100M for its fourth fund

  • Seattle VC Flying Fish raised $50M for a targeted $100M fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and others are exploring partnering on stablecoins 

  • Big banks strike deal to move to solana blockchain in move to tokenize stocks, bonds and funds

  • Kraken launched tokens to offer 24/7 trading of US stocks

  • Active DeFi loans hit ATH at $25B as TVL nears pre-tariff levels

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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