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Betting on Bets: Wall St Edition

Morgan Stanley's CIO expects a 10% S&P drawdown, nuclear energy stocks are rallying on the back of AI, gasoline short bets are at a seven-year high, Germany was sitting on ~$2B of Bitcoin, and Wall Street is taking interest in prediction markets.

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Good Morning,

Morgan Stanley's CIO expects a 10% S&P drawdown, nuclear energy stocks are rallying on the back of AI, gasoline short bets are at a seven-year high, Germany was sitting on ~$2B of Bitcoin, and Wall Street is taking interest in prediction markets.

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Let’s dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 07/08/2024 market close.


  • US stock indexes continued to push ATHs as investors await inflation data, J Pow's testimony, and crucial Q3 earnings

  • Oil settled to a one-week low on demand worries from Hurricane Beryl

  • France-Germany 10Y spread is at 65 bps, slightly lower than the 85 bps twelve-year high from June

  • Euro hit a multi-week high versus the dollar 


  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Thursday: Delta, PepsiCo

    • Friday: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup

  • Full calendar here

Headline Roundup

  • Morgan Stanley CIO expects a 10% decline in S&P 500 by US elections (RT)

  • Nuclear energy stocks are rallying only second to AI amid AI energy demand (RT)

  • AI boom is driving chief information officer pay to ATHs (WSJ)

  • Eurozone investor morale dropped after eight months of gains (RT)

  • JPMorgan cut forecasts for emerging market corporate defaults (RT)

  • Hedge fund short bets against gas are at a seven-year high (BBG)

  • Returns continue to disappoint for funds focused on gender equality (FT)

  • Prediction markets are seeing growing interest from US financial firms (FT)

  • China's $1.6T LGFV bond market sees largest outflows in six years (BBG)

  • CalPERS allocated ~$1B to Sixth Street's asset-based finance strategy (BBG)

  • Boeing will plead guilty to fraud over 737 Max crash deal (FT)

  • A Boeing jet lost a wheel in repeat incident (BBG)

  • Activist Elliott threatened a proxy fight with Southwest Airlines (RT)

  • SEC will rethink 'swing pricing' rules in win for mutual funds (FT)

  • Property fraud allegations snowball as CRE values fall (WSJ)

  • Japan's base pay rose by the most in 31 years (RT)

  • Petrobras raises gasoline prices for first time in 11 months (BBG)

  • Microsoft is leaning on AI hype to spur PC market revival (BBG)

  • Insurers pocketed $50B from Medicare for untreated diseases (WSJ)

  • Tesla and shareholders clash over $7B legal fee request (RT)

  • Citi will exit Haiti after 50 years (RT)

  • Microsoft will offer Apple devices to China employees (RT)

  • Gen-Z social media app noplace debuted as No. 1 on App Store (TC)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Paramount Global will merge with Skydance Media in a $28B deal (FT

  • Brookfield and the founding family of Spanish drugmaker Grifols will launch a joint take-private offer for Grifols, which has a $7.1B market cap (RT)  

  • Devon Energy agreed to acquire the Williston Basin assets of EnCap Investments' Grayson Mill Energy for $5B in cash and stock (BBG

  • Danish brewer Carlsberg agreed to acquire UK pepsi bottler Britvic for $4.2B (BBG

  • Bain Capital is nearing a deal to acquire US financial software vendor Envestnet for ~$3.5B (RT)  

  • Eli Lilly agreed to acquire US gut-drug maker Morphic in a ~$3.2B cash deal (BBG

  • Vista Outdoor rejected investment firm MNC Capital's final buyout offer of $3.2B while agreeing to sell its ammunition unit to Czechoslovak Group for ~$2B (RT

  • A consortium comprising PE firms CD&R and Permira is in advanced talks to take $2.2B-listed French cybersecurity firm  Exclusive Networks private (BBG

  • Sensor manufacturer Masimo received a $850M-$950M offer for its consumer business from a potential JV partner (RT

  • Juicebox-maker Capri-Sun is exploring a minority stake sale of over $500M (BBG

  • Argentina’s largest forex Mercado Abierto Electronico and futures market Matba-Rofex agreed to merge at a potential $500M+ post-merger valuation (BBG

  • UK MP Maurice Saatchi is weighing leading a consortium to bid for The Daily Telegraph (BBG)

  • Turkey’s SWF TWF is considering a sale of its 26.2% stake in Turkey's biggest telecom operator Turkcell (BBG)


  • HarmonyCares, a provider of value-based in-home longitudinal care, raised a $200M round led by General Catalyst, McKesson Ventures, and a national payor (FN)

  • Gymdesk, a member management SaaS for fitness/wellness firms, raised a $32.5M growth investment from Five Elms Capital (PRN)

  • Polystyvert, a recycling startup focused on styrenic plastics, raised a $16M Series B led by Infinity Recycling (PRN)

  • Database startup Tembo raised a $14M round led by GreatPoint Ventures (TC)

  • Eneida, a Portuguese deep grid operational analytics platform, raised a $11.4M Series B led by Junction Growth Investors (FN)

  • Niva, a global business identity platform, raised a $3.3M seed round led by Gradient Ventures (BW)

  • GoJoe, a gamified employee health and fitness app, raised a $3M seed round led by Venrex Partners and Redrice Ventures (EU)


  • UK lender Metro Bank is in talks to sell a residential mortgage loan portfolio worth up to $5.1B (RT

  • Broadcom sold $5B of bonds to refinance some debt backing its $69B acquisition of VMware (BBG)

  • Underwriters led by Bank of Montreal kicked off a ~$2.6B loan sale to back Advent, Novacap, CDPQ, and management's $6.3B LBO of payments processor Nuvei (BBG)

  • Brookfield-backed French data center group Data4 is exploring a $2B debt deal with six banks (BBG

  • KKR and GIP-backed data center firm CyrusOne secured a $7.9B ESG-linked credit line (BBG)

  • Indian shadow bank Piramal Capital and Housing Finance is planning a $300M-$500M debut dollar bond sale (BBG)

  • Canadian pipeline operator Wolf Midstream is planning a $440M debut bond sale (BBG)


  • HongShan, Sequoia's China split-off, raised $2.5B for its latest tech VC fund (FT

  • Norwest Capital Advisors raised $1.4B across its latest MM buyout fund and a mezzanine fund (BW)

  • MetLife's investment arm formed a $1.2B FOF to acquire PE LP stakes and make PE co-investments (WSJ

  • MM infrastructure manager Orion Infrastructure Capital closed its inaugural growth fund at $370M (BW)

Crypto Corner

  • Germany sold $900M worth of Bitcoin, revealing ~$2B stake (CNBC)

  • Bitcoin miner Bitfarms named a new CEO as Riot takeover heats up (BBG)

  • Crypto funds saw inflows for the first time in a month (BBG)

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