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Litquidity Capital
July 30, 2025

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Good Morning,

S&P 500 firms are firing CEOs at the fastest pace since 2005, Citigroup poached another IB veteran from JPMorgan, PE is getting crushed under worsening credit conditions, dealmakers are having an unusually busy summer, and market euphoria is once again sparking bubble warnings.

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Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 7/29/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks closed lower yesterday as investors digested mixed earnings and dim outlooks

    • S&P broke a six-day win streak 

  • Dollar hit its highest in five weeks

Earnings

  • Boeing beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as sales jumped 81% YoY in its commercial airplane unit and losses halved; the firm highlighted increased 737 Max production to 38 aircraft per month and called 2025 a potential turnaround year (CNBC)

  • Spotify missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and gave poor Q3 guidance despite a 10% rise in revenues and 11% rise in MAU amid weakness in its ads business (BBG)

  • Starbucks beat Q3 revenue estimates on a 4% YoY net sales growth but missed on earnings amid a sixth-straight same-store sales decline as the firm's ambitious turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol is yet to reflect (CNBC)

  • UnitedHealth Group beat Q2 revenue estimates but missed on earnings and lowered FY earnings guidance due to rising medical costs; the firm acknowledged pricing and operational mistakes and the need for fundamental reorientation (CNBC)

  • Visa beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates, with earnings up 19% and revenue rising 14% YoY to a record driven by 12% growth in cross-border volume and 10% more processed transactions on the back of resilient consumer spending (BBG)

  • PayPal beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates with sales up 5% YoY and total payment volume ahead of expectations; Venmo revenue grew over 20% for a second-straight quarter (CNBC)

  • UPS met Q2 revenue estimates but missed on earnings and withdrew FY guidance due to macro uncertainty and a 'dynamic and evolving trade environment' referencing pressure from de-minimis tariffs and shifting trade policy (WSJ)

  • Booking Holdings topped Q2 earnings and revenue estimates with 32% and 16% YoY growth respectively, but issued a cautious Q3 outlook amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty (BBG)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, Kraft Heinz, Carvana, Ford, Hershey

    • Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Reddit, Mastercard, Strategy, CVS Health, Roblox

    • Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron

  • Full calendar here 

Prediction Markets

  • You know NYC is cooked when these are the only choices over Mamdani.

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Headline Roundup

  • Blackstone exec Wesley LePatner was among those killed in shooting (BBG)

  • NYC gunman targeted NFL office but ended up on different floor (BBG)

  • Wall Street gears up for 'pivotal' three days for US markets (FT)

  • S&P 500 firms are firing CEOs at the fastest pace in two decades (RT)

  • Wall Street 'euphoria' sparks bubble warnings (FT)

  • US trade deals come with few details to flesh out big numbers (BBG)

  • US and China extended tariff deadline (BBG)

  • PE is driving an 80% defaulted debt jump (BBG)

  • M&A transaction values are up almost 20% this year at $2.2T (BBG)

  • US consumer confidence rose (BBG)

  • US job openings fell in June after two-straight months of increases (BBG)

  • US home price growth slowed for a fourth-straight month (BBG)

  • $23B of delinquent CRE loans are reaching maturity (BBG)

  • Japan 2Y bond sale drew the strongest demand since October (BBG)

  • CalPERS has 'very strong conviction' in PE (BBG)

  • Capital Group and KKR seek SEC approval for retail PE fund (BBG)

  • JPMorgan is in talks to replace Goldman as Apple's credit card partner (WSJ)

  • Citigroup named JPMorgan's Pankaj Goel as co-head of tech IB (RT)

  • Meta poached a fourth AI researcher from Apply (BBG)

  • HSBC asked MDs to work in office four days a week (BBG)

  • Apple closed a retail store in China for the first time (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Union Pacific agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern in an $85B cash-and-stock deal, including debt, at a 23% premium, to form a $250B transcontinental rail giant

  • Palo Alto Networks is in talks to acquire Israeli cybersecurity firm CyberArk Software for over $20B

  • Energy technology giant Baker Hughes agreed to acquire O&G equipment manufacturer Chart Industries for $9.6B cash, a 22% premium

  • NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange is in advanced talks to acquire energy data platform Enverus from PE firm Hellman & Friedman at an over $6B valuation

  • European PE firm EQT will launch a tender offer for Japanese elevator maker Fujitec at a $2.7B valuation for an 8% discount; Oasis Management and Farallon Capital Management agreed to tender their shares

  • LNG company Spire agreed to acquire Duke Energy's Tennessee Piedmont Natural Gas unit for $2.5B to become Tennessee’s largest investor-owned gas utility firm

  • Building-material provider CRH agreed to acquire cement alternatives producer Eco Material Technologies for $2.1B cash

  • UK PE firm Bridgepoint agreed to acquire a majority stake in German insurance broker HBC from Preservation Capital Partners at an over $810M valuation 

  • IT consulting firm Magellan Partners entered exclusive talks to acquire French payment firm Worldline's Mobility & e-Transactional Services business for $474M

  • Evercore agreed to acquire elite UK advisory firm Robey Warshaw for $196M

  • Italian truck maker IVECO confirmed advanced talks to sell its defense and commercial truck units to separate buyers as part of planned breakup

  • Chinese developer Lai Sun Development is seeking to sell its 50% stake in Hong Kong's CCB Tower

  • Brazilian asset manager Vinci Compass Investments agreed to acquire hedge fund Verde Asset Management in a JV that grants it full control after five years

  • John Hess will reacquire the iconic Hess toy truck business, along with a leasehold interest in an aircraft and hangar, from Chevron following its $53B takeover of Hess

VC

  • AI startup Anthropic is in talks to raise $5B at a $170B valuation led by ICONIQ

  • Chinese AI startup Z.ai raised $1.5B in funding from Chinese state funds

  • Crypto exchange Kraken is set to raise $500M at a $15B valuation

  • Fireworks AI, a cloud provider startup renting out chip servers to developers using AI models, is in talks to raise funds at a $4B post-money valuation

  • Bitcoin 180 Life Sciences rebranded as an ether treasury firm ETHZilla and raised $425M in funding from Polychain Capital, Electric Capital, GSR, and more

  • Lyten, a manufacturer of lithium-sulfur batteries, raised $200M in funding led by Prime Movers Lab and acquired Northvolt's Battery Energy Storage System product portfolio

  • Aidoc, a startup building a Healthcare Foundation Model, raised a $150M round led by General Catalyst and Square Peg

  • ARTBIO, a radiopharmaceutical company, raised a $132M Series B led by Sofinnova and B Capital

  • Reka, a multimodal AI startup, raised a $110M round from investors including Nvidia and Snowflake

  • Aeva Technologies, a startup building 4D LiDAR sensing systems, raised $50M in funding from LG Innotek

  • BlinkOps, an agentic security automation platform, raised a $50M Series B led by O.G. Venture Partners

  • Lumana, an AI video security solutions company, raised a $40M Series A led by Wing Venture Capital

  • Middle Eastern food delivery startup Calo raised a $39M Series B extension led by AlJazira Capital

  • Cybersecurity startup Dropzone AI raised a $37M Series B led by Theory Ventures

  • Arbital Health, a healthcare tech startup providing infrastructure for providers and payers to manage risk-based contracts, raised a $31M Series B led by Valtruis

  • Reveal Technology, a defense technology company, raised a $30M Series B led by Ballistic Ventures

  • Wingspan, a payroll platform for contractors, raised a $24M Series B led by Touring Capital

  • Promptfoo, an open-source framework for AI red-teaming and security testing, raised an $18.4M Series A led by Insight Partners

  • Seal Security, a startup providing application security solutions for open source components, raised a $13M Series A led by Vertex Israel

  • ARX Robotics, a European provider of autonomous unmanned ground vehicles, raised an $12.7M Series A extension led by Speedinvest

  • Solar deployment platform Planted Solar raised a $12M round led by Piva Capital

  • AI data analyst startup Julius raised a $10M seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners

  • Reach Security, an AI-powered assistant for operationalizing security controls across the enterprise, raised $10M from M12 and existing investors

  • Trovata, a multibank data platform for cash and liquidity management, raised a $9M Series B extension from State Street and PNC

  • Trustfull, a European seamless fraud prevention technology, raised a $7M round led by Seaya Ventures and Elevator Ventures

  • Lyra, an AI-native meeting platform for sales teams, raised a $6M seed round at a $40M valuation led by 468 Capital

  • Keye, an AI platform for PE due diligence, raised a $5M seed round from Sorenson Capital, General Catalyst, Y Combinator, ERA, and more

  • Crypto derivatives exchange D2X raised a $5M strategic funding round from Circle Ventures, CMT Digital, and others

IPOs / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Consumer fintech SoFi announced a $1.5B stock offering

  • Design software firm Figma's upsized $1.2B US IPO is 40x oversubscribed

  • Saudi developer Dar Al Majed raised $336M in a Saudi IPO that was sold out in minutes

  • Singapore SWF Temasek built a 10% stake worth $220M in Italian fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna 

  • Bit Digital's AI infrastructure subsidiary Whitefiber filed for a $133M IPO

  • Semiconductor manufacturer Ambiq Micro raised $96M at a $423M valuation in an upsized IPO, slightly below its $450M valuation from 2023

Debt 

  • Baker Hughes secured a $14.9B bridge loan to support its $9.6B acquisition of Chart Industries in this year's largest blue-chip debt financing for an acquisition

  • Spanish lender CaixaBank is is talks to sell ~$1B in soured loans to accelerate balance sheet cleanup

  • Bad Vibes Forever, the brand tied to late rapper XXXTentacion, raised $20M in private credit from Ares

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • 50 South Capital Advisors, the alternative investments FOF of Northern Trust Asset Management, raised $2.1B across two flagship PE and PE secondaries funds

  • Korean investment firm Glenwood Private Equity raised $1.1B for its third Korea-focused fund

  • Venture debt investor Tacora Capital raised $685M from Thiel, Andreessen, and Lonsdale to back startups in finance and insurance

  • Real estate credit manager S3 Capital raised $730M for its third real estate credit fund

  • Ex-Millennium PM Steve Barclay launched Saber Capital, an energy-focused hedge fund seeded by FOF New Holland Capital

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • eToro plans to tokenize US stocks on Ethereum network for 24/7 trading

  • SEC approved in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETPs

  • Subscribe to Crypto Sum for the full stories on everything crypto!

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  • A great reminder from Ben Carlson that nothing works all the time, especially in investing.

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out our recruiting firm, Litney Partners. Established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners has placed strong candidates across leading firms spanning private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, private credit, investment banking, and fintech. Head over to our website to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

We are able to move faster than most firms due to our paralleled reach, decades of industry expertise, and ability to attract top caliber candidates.

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and/or are curious to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play reviews every submission and will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They’ve grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

Meme Cleanser

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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