Art of the No Deal

Author

Litquidity Capital
August 18, 2025

In partnership with

Good Morning,

A quite uneventful weekend except for a rare Trump-Putin meeting on US soil. No deal was made.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 8/15/2025 market close.

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Markets

  • US stocks slipped from ATHs on Friday on weak consumer sentiment

  • US corporate bond spreads sunk to 73 bps to a 27-year low 

Earnings

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Palo Alto Networks

    • Tuesday: Home Depot, Carlyle

    • Wednesday: Target, Lowe's, Estée Lauder, TJX, Baidu

    • Thursday: Walmart, Zoom, Workday

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • This has got to be a joke🤦

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

  • 'No deal' after Trump and Putin meeting on US soil (CNBC)

  • J Pow is set to deliver annual Wyoming speech on Friday (BBG)

  • US said potential 300% chip tariffs are coming soon (BBG)

  • US consumer sentiment fell as inflation expectations climbed (BBG)

  • US retail sales rose in sign of consumer resilience (BBG)

  • S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth smashed expectations (WSJ)

  • Family office allocations to private markets are up 525% since 2016 (CNBC)

  • Private credit is using soccer transfer fees as collateral (BBG)

  • Lure of 'free money' in secondaries nears a mania (BBG)

  • China economy posted its deepest slowdown YTD (BBG)

  • Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbed to a record $9.13T (RT)

  • Equity funds saw the highest inflows in six weeks (RT)

  • US stock market dominance is an emergency for Europe (WSJ)

  • China's $11T stock market is a headache for both Xi and Trump (BBG)

  • EU sees Sweden as a model as it looks to encourage investors (BBG)

  • European investors switch attention to EM ETFs (FT)

  • Boom in bespoke ETFs drives growth of niche 'a-la-carte' options (BBG)

  • CEO pay at FTSE 100 firms hit a record high (BBG)

  • JPMorgan stepped up planning for new Canary Wharf tower (FT)

  • Litigation investor Burford Capital wants to buy stakes in US law firms (FT)

  • China cracks down on foreign companies stockpiling rare earths (FT)

  • SEC fined PE firm TZP over excess fees (WSJ)

  • Appeals court cleared DOGE to restart CFPB mass firings (RT)

  • OpenAI expects to spend 'trillions' on AI infrastructure (BBG)

  • Meta is planning a fourth restructuring of AI efforts this year (RT)

  • Airbus is set to dethrone Boeing for first time in 40 years (BBG)

  • AI is forcing return of in-person interviews (WSJ)

  • NYC mayoral candidate Mamdani met with Jamie Dimon (BBG)

A Message from Every.io

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We’ve worked with over 800 startups—from first-time founders at pre-seed to fast-moving teams raising Series A and beyond—and we’d love to help you navigate whatever’s next.

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Tech-focused PE firm Thoma Bravo is in talks to take-private $8.5B-listed HR software firm Dayforce 

  • A group of investors including controlling shareholder Ron Burkle and MCR Hotels is close to a $1.8B take-private deal for members' club Soho House 

  • PE firm Advent International is in advanced talks to acquire Swiss positioning chips maker U-blox at a $1.2B valuation

  • Consulting giant Accenture agreed to acquire Australian cybersecurity firm CyberCX for $650M

  • Jared Kushner's PE firm Affinity Partners agreed to acquire an 8% stake in UK lender OakNorth

  • Foods giant Associated British Foods agreed to acquire rival baker Hovis from PE firm Endless

VC

  • OpenAI is looking to sell $6B in secondary shares at a $500B valuation to investors including SoftBank and Thrive Capital

  • Profound, a startup helping businesses control how they appear in AI responses, raised a $35M Series B led by Sequoia

  • Jump, a unified fan experience platform for professional sports teams, raised a $23M Series A led by Seven Seven Six

  • Tax-efficient diversification platform Cache raised a $12.5M Series A led by First Round Capital

  • Hyperbeat, a protocol powering yield infrastructure for their decentralized exchange, raised a $5.2M seed round led by ether.fi Ventures and Electric Capital

  • AI-native contract intelligence platform Infinity Loop raised a $5M seed round led by Glasswing Ventures and TIAA Ventures

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • SoftBank-owned digital payments provider PayPay filed for a US IPO, targeting a $10B valuation

  • Blackstone-backed engineering firm Legence filed for an IPO at a potential $5B valuation, including debt

  • Transit tech firm Via filed for an IPO; the firm was last valued at $3.5B in 2023

  • Crypto exchange Gemini filed for an IPO

  • SoftBank-backed Hong Kong travel booking company Klook tapped banks for a potential US IPO

  • Activist hedge fund Sachem Head took a stake in J&J-spinoff Kenvue

Debt

  • Student loan giant Nelnet will acquire $26B of BNPL loans from Swedish fintech Klarna as Klarna looks to free up capital ahead of its IPO

  • Apollo will lend $700M to back a potential $1.8B take-private of SoHo House

  • Developer Naftali Group raised $675M in debt from JPMorgan and GoldenTree Asset Management for its purchase of a luxury Manhattan apartment building

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Barclays is selling $320M of struggling UK utility Thames Water's debt

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Bain Capital raised over $1B for its latest MM credit fund

  • Climate tech investment firm Energize Capital raised $430M for a new fund targeting early-stage startups

  • Dutch asset manager Achmea Investment Management launched its latest PE impact fund targeting $290M

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Fed will stop policing banks on crypto and fintech activities

  • Crypto chases hype while missing foundational fortune

  • Trump family-backed Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin is hunting M&A in Asia

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

Finance & Startup Recruiting 💼

Litney Partners

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out our recruiting firm, Litney Partners. Established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm), Litney Partners has placed strong candidates across leading firms spanning private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, private credit, investment banking, and fintech. Head over to our website to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

We are currently working to find a Head of Capital Markets for a fintech building a finance super app for business owners. This hire will lead all aspects of fundraising, capital structuring, complex funding strategy, and external lender and investor relationships for a rapidly growing startup. The ideal candidate will possess:

  • 10-20 years of experience in banking, private credit, DCM, LevFin, or a related field

  • 3 years of hands-on management experience

  • Bachelor's degree or higher in finance, economics, business, or a related field

  • Track record of success in a capital markets

  • Excellent leadership, interpersonal skills, and analytical problem-solving abilities

If this sounds like you, let's get in touch. Apply here 🤝

Next Play

If you're down bad, realizing finance isn't for you, and/or are curious to explore the world of startups (BizOps, chief of staff, strategic finance, etc.), fill out this form. Next Play reviews every submission and will reach out to schedule a 1:1 video call if they think they can be helpful as your own, personal startup matchmaker. They’ve grown their community to over 50k talented individuals and have strong relationships across the tech ecosystem.

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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