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Good Morning,
US banned Microsoft from sponsoring residency for foreign workers, NFL asked SCOTUS to let states regulate prediction markets, Goldman will pay top execs $500M in special bonuses, US will not attack Iran before the midterms, and techs stocks slumped following a report that OpenAI's ARR is $20B less than previously signaled.
Polymarket recently launched Polymarket Institutional Research, a publication exploring the intersection of prediction markets with the global financial system. It's proprietary research straight from their institutional desk with super valuable insights for public market investors. Your firm can request access here.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell

As of 10/8/2026 market close.
Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks slid yesterday as new details about OpenAI revenue spooked investors
Euro is on track to fall for a fifth week as it trades near a 17-month low
Earnings
Prediction Markets
Marco Rubio has been delivering banger after banger every time he steps on a podium, not to mention he's one of the most effective and successful picks of Trump's presidency. How is he not equal to JD Vance here??
Get a $25 bonus with code LIT on signup, only on the Polymarket US app
Headline Roundup
Goldman will pay top execs $500M in special bonuses (FT)
Trump says US 'will not attack Iran' before midterms (FT)
Chinese bonds become source of cheap money for global borrowers (BBG)
Japan deal drought cuts IPO fundraising to lowest in 14 years (BBG)
Private credit firms see rare growth shortcut with BDCs for sale (BBG)
Apollo has traded $35B since it began making markets in private credit (BBG)
Oracle, Broadcom, and SpaceX seek mega debt deals to fund AI chips (WSJ)
Arini Capital is down 16% YTD (WSJ)
30% options pop in mere minutes shows power of Discord 'finfluencers' (BBG)
Anthropic IPO investors struggle to put a price on AI risk (BBG)
OpenAI ARR is $20B less than previously signaled (FT)
New Apple CEO John Ternus named Steve Smith as new M&A chief (BBG)
Larry Ellison invested $17B in son's Warner Bros. takeover (BBG)
AI pricing lawsuit against McDonald's raises new antitrust questions (RT)
NFL asked SCOTUS to let states regulate prediction markets (BBG)
US banned Microsoft from sponsoring foreign workers for residency (FT)
Fed fined Amex $350M for insufficient anti-money laundering program (RT)
EY challenges Deloitte in outsourcing as revenue growth accelerates (FT)
US will livestream firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter (RT)
A Message from Polymarket
Polymarket Institutional Research is a new publication exploring the intersection of Polymarket with the global financial system — original analysis built directly on our markets, written by the Institutional Desk. From Anthropic's valuation strip, to the Hormuz reopening gap, to the future of Lagarde at the ECB.
If your financial institution is looking to engage with event contracts, the Polymarket Institutional Desk is scaling up. For information on block trades, market making, and commercial data sales on either our US or international exchanges, reach out below.
What's inside:
Weekly market briefings
Deep dives on forecast scenarios and LP opportunities
Quarterly liquidity & microstructure reports with full depth data
Direct access to our research team via dedicated Slack
Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
$100B-listed Starbucks is exploring a takeover bid for $40B-listed Chipotle
Italian insurance giant and parent Generali is preparing takeover bid for $8.5B-listed private bank Banca Generali
Italian holding group Caltagirone rejected Italian lender BMPS' bid for $25B-listed peer Banco BPM and Banca Generali
French lender Credit Agricole also did not tender its stake in BMPS' bid for Banco BPM
Carlyle's deal to acquire the $10B worth of international assets of sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil expired
Coca-Cola is seeking to unwind its $5B acquisition of UK coffeehouse Costa Coffee after an earlier sales process this year failed
RBC Global Asset Management will vote against the $4.8B breakup and sale of Canadian industrial REIT H&R REIT
KKR-backed Crescent Energy will acquire Devon Energy's drilling portfolio in Texas for $4.2B
Chevron will divest its stakes in Hess Midstream and DJ Basin crude oil midstream assets as part of a broader restructuring that will see it take a $3B-$4B hit
Investment firms Elliott and Siris are exploring a $2B sale of infrastructure software provider Gigamon
Drugmaker Viatris will buy Pacira BioSciences for $1.65B cash at a 45% premium
Management led by CEO Moussa Diao and trading manager Herve Bouvet acquired Africa-focused trader Oryx Energies for $1B in an MBO
Italian engineering company Trevi Finanziaria Industriale may reject an improved $370M cash takeover offer from larger peer Webuild as undervalued
South African miner Gold Fields will acquire the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and related rights in Western Australia from global miner BHP
SpaceX will acquire 100% of PE firm Grain Management's nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio
Porsche raised its stake in German auto racing team Manthey Racing to 67%
VC
Chinese AI agent startup Manus raised a $500M funding round co-led by Boyu Capital and IDG Capital after being unwound from Meta
Oratomic, a quantum computing startup, raised a $475M Series B at a $5.4B valuation co-led by ARCH Venture Partners, Spark Capital, Khosla Ventures, Index Ventures, General Catalyst, and Bezos Expeditions
Atomic Machines, a company building micro-machines with AI and programmable manufacturing, emerged from stealth with $250M from One Investment Management, Gigafund, XTX Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, University of California, and others
Voltus, a virtual power plant operator, raised a $225M Series D led by Generation Investment Management
Arena, an AI evaluation company, raised a $200M Series B at a $3.1B valuation co-led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures
VEIR, a designer and manufacturer of superconducting power delivery systems for AI data centers, raised a $110M Series C co-led by Matter Venture Partners and Tyche Partners
Gallatin AI, an AI-native military logistics company, raised a $50M Series A from 8VC, Silent Ventures, and others
Fortastra, a developer of maneuverable spacecraft for on-orbit security, raised a $30M Series A led by First In
Catalyst, an AI trading agents startup, raised a $30M seed round led by Sequoia
Rein Security, the AI-native runtime security platform for enterprises, raised a $25M Series A co-led by Glilot Capital and Sienna Venture Capital
Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable
IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Solidigm, the flash memory unit of Korean chip darling SK Hynix, picked banks for a US IPO that could raise $10B at a $100B valuation
Nvidia-backed data center firm Firmus shelved its record $5.5B Australia IPO after low demand and is weighing a private funding round instead
Belron, the windshield giant of Belgian conglomerate D'Ieteren Group, picked banks for a record Europe IPO that could fetch a $35B valuation
RNA-focused biotech Sanegene Bio confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO
Avaada Electro, the Brookfield-backed solar manufacturing arm of Indian power firm Avaada Group, plans to launch its $785M India IPO next month
Malaysian chip firm SQ Advanced Interconnect is considering raising $75M at a $300M valuation in a Malaysia IPO in Q1
Nvidia-backed AI drug developer Iambic Therapeutics is seeking to raise $160M in its IPO
UK fintech Revolut is targeting a US primary listing
Debt
Chinese big tech giant Tencent is considering another $5B offshore bond sale
Waymo raise the size of its debut debt raise to $5B
Mexican airport Aeropuerto de Cancún completed a $1.8B senior notes offering led by JPMorgan
Funds / Secondaries
Investors in Guggenheim Partners pulled $2.4B from its four largest mutual funds last month after CEO Mark Walter came under federal investigation
Healthcare PE firm Aphias Capital raised $1.05B for its debut fund
Healthcare-focused PE firm Sheridan Capital Partners raised $1.35B across two new funds
Blackstone raised $1B for a private credit CV for assets in its 2022 vintage led by Allianz
Energy Capital Partners raised an $834M single-asset CV for Next Wave Energy Partners anchored by GCM Grosvenor, Phoenix Insurance, Ardian, StepStone, and North Hudson Resource Partners
Ex-a16z partner and Trump AI advisor Sriram Krishnan is seeking to raise $500M for a new VC fund focused on growth-stage AI startups building in national security
Distressed credit investor Corre Partners raised $220M for a targeted $650M third fund
Impact investor Encourage Capital is raising a new India-focused PE fund
Apptopia's Chart of the Week
While up dramatically YoY, new user acquisition of Starlink (SPCX) has slowed, stunting growth
Historically, Apptopia's MAU estimates have tracked Starlink's reported subscriber milestones
Generate alpha from mobile consumer signals with Apptopia.
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Charles Schwab says 64% of millennials plan to buy crypto
Crypto market inflows hit $50B this year
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
ICYMI: Deal teams on F2 go from data room to term sheet in hours, with sensitivities and downside cases still run on every deal. Screening now takes an afternoon. Try a demo.
FT published an interesting piece on how hedge fund leverage has become Wall Street bank's cash cow.
Also, Bloomberg found that long-shot trades are dominating trading on popular prediction market platforms. No matter how well the information is priced, there's always gonna be some degen blowing it all away.
Financial Services Recruiting 💼
If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).
We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.
We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!
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