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Good Morning,

Global stocks recovered to all-time highs, Circle's IPO was a hit, Novo Nordisk's women employees are now making more than men, Apollo is eyeing investment-grade private credit, Americans are setting savings records, and AQR has completely embraced AI/ML in trading decisions.

Speaking of AI, Columbia Business School and Wall Street Prep launched a comprehensive online program on AI for Business & Finance, covering everything from GenAI foundations to advanced ML and predictive analytics. Learn more below!

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks closed mostly flat as investors digested fresh economic data

• MSCI ACWI hit an ATH

• South Korea's KOSPI index entered a bull market from its April low

• US 2Y to 10Y yields fell to their lowest since early-May

  • Traders priced in a 90% chance of a 25 bps September Fed rate cut and a second 25 bps cut after by year-end

• South Africa's 10Y yield fell to its lowest since 2022

Earnings

• Dollar Tree beat Q1 earnings and revenue estimates on higher-income shoppers trading down amid weak consumer sentiment, but warned of a 50% drop in Q2 profits due to 145% China tariffs and Family Dollar servicing costs; the firm expects profit to re-accelerate in H2 as tariff pressures ease (BBG)

• What we're watching this week:  

  • Today: Broadcom, DocuSign, lululemon, Victoria's Secret

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• Priced in??

• Trade your predictions on a range of events, only on Kalshi. Sign up with code LIT and get a $20 bonus when you trade $100.

Headline Roundup

• New tax bill will add $2.4T to US deficit (BBG)

• US tariffs may cut budget gap by $2.8T (BBG)

• Trump stymied in 'Art of the Deal' approach to world leaders (BBG)

• US hiring cooled to slowest pace in two years (BBG)

• US services activity contracted for first time in a year (BBG)

• US may reform SLR regulation on Wall Street (BBG)

• SEC is seeking new regulations on foreign/Chinese firms (RT)

• Big investors shift away from US markets (FT)

• Quant giant AQR 'surrendered' to AI/ML for trading decisions (FT)

• Apollo is targeting investment-grade private credit (BBG)

• Wells Fargo CEO goes from fixer to builder as regulators lift punishments (RT)

• Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as Fed's top cop (RT)

• Saudi banks are on risky debt spree to keep funding gigaprojects (BBG)

• Europe plans initiative to attract retail money (BBG) 

• EU eyes capital relief for insurers to spur asset-backed market (BBG)

• Deal-hungry equity investors eye Europe's potential defense boom (RT)

• Russia's SWF fell 14% in May (BBG)

• Hackers are stealing Salesforce data from companies (BBG)

• Ray Dalio will serve as advisor to Indonesia's SWF (BBG)

• Jefferies poached Lazard's RIchard Thomas to head activism defense (RT)

• Robinhood may join the S&P 500 (BBG)

• Bernie Madoff customers will recoup $500M as total payouts hit $15B (RT)

• EY joined consultants racing into marketing (WSJ)

• DOJ and SEC are probing CrowdStrike's accounting (BBG)

• Citi will cut 3.5k tech jobs in China (RT)

• STMicro will cut 5k jobs (RT)

• US average 401(k) savings rose to a record high (WSJ)

• US added a 562k millionaires last year for a record high (BBG)

• Novo Nordisk's women are now paid more than men (BBG)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

• Fluid motion and control products giant Chart Industries and O&G processing manufacturer Flowserve agreed to merge in a $19B all-stock deal, including debt

• Carlyle invested $1.3B in insurance brokerage firm Trucordia at a $5.7B valuation

• Hong Kong's CK Infrastructure-backed British rolling stock leasing firm Eversholt Rail, is drawing interest from suitors including Hong Kong railway MTR and JPMorgan-owned Beacon Rail, with the firm seeking a ~$5.4B valuation

• Shareholders PIN Privatstiftung, SWRW Verwaltungs, and Wacker 

• Brazilian pulp maker Suzano is nearing an acquisition of Kimberly-Clark's Kleenex and tissue businesses outside of North America for ~$3.5B

• Familiengesellschaft, are exploring a sale of their 58% stake in $1.8B-listed German construction equipment maker Wacker Neuson

• Cosmetics giant L'Oréal is close to a $1.1B deal to acquire UK skincare company Medik8 from UK PE firm Inflexion

• Blackstone agreed to buy UK's Warehouse REIT for $635.4M at a 34% premium after lowering its bid following due diligence

• PE firm BayPine agreed to acquire a majority stake in legal consulting and IT services firm Harbor Global from Renovus Capital Partners at an over $600M valuation

• Thrive Capital-backed accounting platform Crete Professionals Alliance plans to invest over $500M in an AI accounting roll-up

• Wrexham AFC, the Welsh football club owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, is considering a stake sale at a $475M valuation

• UK outsourcer Mitie Group is in talks to acquire $390M-listed smaller peer Marlowe

• Mayfair Equity Partners is exploring a sale of Luxembourg-based property classifieds platform atHome for several hundred million dollars after receiving inbound interest

VC

• Embedded insurance startup Bolttech raised a $147M Series C at a $2.1B valuation from Sumitomo Corporation and Iberis Capital

• Vivrelle, a luxury accessories membership club, raised a $62M Series C led by Protagonist

• MIND, a data loss prevention startup, raised a $30M Series A led by Paladin Capital Group and Crosspoint Capital Partners

• AI reconciliation platform Simetrik raised a $30M Series B led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives

• Australian energytech startup Amber raised a $30M round led by ETF Partners

• Apidia, a Finnish AI-powered fintech, raised a $28M Series B led by Activant

• Industrial optimization startup Fabriq raised a $25M round led by Expedition Capital

• Sema4, an enterprise AI agent company, raised a $25M Series A extension from Snowflake Ventures, Rocketship VC, and others

• Obvio, a startup using stop sign cameras to detect unsafe drivers, raised a $22M Series A led by Bain Capital Ventures

• Skyral, a UK-based startup developing an AI-enabled digital twin, raised a $20M Series A led by NOIA Capital

• Baobab Insurance, a German insurtech providing insurance to protect businesses from cyberattacks, raised a $13.7M Series A led by Viola Fintech

• Compyl, a unified GRC platform, raised a $12M Series A led by Venture Guides

• Jua, a startup building an AI-based earth simulation, raised an $11.5M Series A led by Ananda Impact Ventures and Future Energy Ventures

• Canid, a pediatric vaccine management platform, raised a $10M Series A led by Telescope Partners

• Swiss preventative health startup Aeon raised a $9.3M seed round led by VC Concentric

• Manex AI, a German startup building an autonomous factory, raised a $9M seed round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and BlueYard Capital

• Thunder Code, a GenAI-powered software testing platform, raised a $9M seed round from Silicon Badia, Jaango Capital, and more

• Construction tech startup AUAR raised a $7M round led by Planet A

• AI journaling app Rosebud raised a $6M seed round led by Bessemer Venture Partners

• Clara Home Care, a platform for in-home care for families, raised a $3.1M seed round led by Torch Capital, Virtue, and Y Combinator

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• Portuguese lender Novo Banco shareholders approved steps for a $1.1B IPO as majority PE owner Lone Star weighs a partial listing or full sale; a 25%-30% stake could be offered at a $6.3B-$8B valuation

• Stablecoin issuer Circle raised $1.05B at a $6.8B valuation in an upsized IPO priced at the top of the range

• Saudi hospital operator Specialized Medical Co.'s raised $506.6M in an IPO that was ~65x oversubscribed, the lowest multiple among recent Saudi listings

• Dubai party hotel operator FIVE Holdings is considering a listing in UK or US alongside its Dubai IPO at a potential $3B valuation

• Cobalt Holdings scrapped its planned $230M London IPO, which aimed to fund an initial cobalt purchase from Glencore and cover storage costs

• Norway sold its entire 6.26% stake in Norwegian Air Shuttle for $88M, exiting a post-Covid support investment during a 2021 restructuring

• Hyundai and Kia offloaded their stakes in Indian EV maker Ola Electric in a combined $80M share sale

• German industrial engineering conglomerate Thyssenkrupp plans to spinoff 49% of its defense unit TKMS to shareholders

• Chinese retail MINISO is planning a Hong Kong IPO of its Top Toy unit and is seeking fresh capital from backers such as SWFs ahead of a listing

• Saudi Arabia's Al Khaldi Logistics canceled its planned IPO on Saudi's parallel exchange amid a broader slump in Saudi equity markets

• Saudi education firm Dome International Investment scrapped its planned IPO on Saudi's parallel exchange

SPAC

• Launch startup iRocket will merge with BPGC Acquisition Corp. in a $400M deal

Debt

• TPG will anchor xAI's $5B debt deal

• Brazil sold $2.75N of dollar bonds for the second time in six months 

• Blackstone led a $1.5B private credit deal to finance H&F-backed accounting firm Baker Tilly's $7B merger with Moss Adams

• Chicago sold $698M of munis at an up to 5.6% YTM

• Kazakhstan's state-owned oil producer KazMunayGas is exploring raising funds from abroad, including yuan-denominated bonds

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Airline Garuda Indonesia is in talks with Indonesia's SWF Danantara for a $500M injection to help turn its business around

• Hedge fund founder George Weiss filed for personal bankruptcy after a judge ruled he owes Jefferies $113M

• Bankrupt gene-testing firm 23andMe wants to reopen bidding after receiving a $305M offer from co-founder Anne Wojcicki, higher than the previously selected $256M bid from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

• Clearlake Capital-backed Wellness Pet Company secured $100M in new financing and extended debt maturities to 2029 after lenders agreed to take a cut on original loan amounts

Fundraising / Secondaries

• Investment firm Neuberger Berman raised over $4B for its latest GP-led secondary fund

• Yale is finalizing a $2.5B PE and VC LP stakes sale at a 10% NAV discount in its first major secondaries sale and this year's largest such transactions

• Nordic healthcare investor Impilo Capital raised ~$800M for its first euro-denominated lower MM healthcare fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• JPMorgan will accept crypto as loan collateral

• Our free Crypto Sum daily newsletter brings the most important stories on everything crypto. Check it out!

Exec’s Picks

• Alt Managers, stop wasting your time managing vendors, contracts, invoices, and expense allocations manually in Excel. StavPay automates and streamlines this process and now has over 100 clients with $2.3T AUM leveraging the system daily. Get more details at stavpay.com and schedule a demo today.

• Came across the most entertaining (and educational??) short-story yesterday. Truly the best advice on leadership. Take it as you will.

• Bloomberg published primers on two major on-going market events that have investors on their toes. Insightful reads if you've been out of the loop:

  • Why investors are so nervous about Japanese bonds

  • Why property giant New World's debt woes have Hong Kong on edge

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.