AI Bulls Are Here to Stay

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Good Morning,

Top hedge funds are still bullish on AI after DeepSeek's disruption, retail investors bought record amount of Nvidia in the dip, CZ converted VC Binance Labs into a family office, and a US startup's supersonic jet broke the sound barrier in a historic first.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of Carter McIntosh today, a 28-year-old Jefferies banker who unexpectedly passed away.

Tune in to a conversation with Techstars MD Keith Camhi to discuss fundraising and exit potential in a resurgent M&A market.

Before The Bell

As of 1/28/2025 market close.

Markets

  • US stocks recovered some from Monday's steep AI selloff triggered by China's DeepSeek AI

    • S&P 500 technology sector rallied 3.6% in its best day since July 31

Earnings

  • Starbucks beat Q1 earnings estimates on an easing same-store sales decline as the coffee chain starts a high-stakes turnaround effort (CNBC

  • Boeing missed Q4 revenue estimates and reported a larger-than-expected loss in its worst since Covid, although its new CEO noted that the firm was making progress on its recovery (CNBC)  

  • Lockheed Martin fell 9% after missing Q4 earnings estimates and forecast lower-than-expected 2025 FY profit on delays in its F-35 program (RT

  • Royal Caribbean jumped 12% after reporting a Q4 beat-and-raise thanks to steady vacation demand (YH

  • RTX beat Q4 earnings estimates amid the Ukraine conflict but forecast 2025 profit and revenue slightly below expectations (RT

  • JetBlue plunged 25% in its largest one-day drop ever after giving disappointing guidance on a 7% YoY expected rise in unit costs; the firm is in the middle of a cost-cutting program (CNBC

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, ASML, IBM, T-Mobile 

    • Thursday: Apple, Intel, Visa, UPS, Mastercard, Blackstone, Southwest

    • Friday: Brookfield, ExxonMobil, Chevron

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • Markets are betting on a bunch of high-profile tech firms to run Super Bowl ads next weekend.

  • Trade your predictions on a range of events legally, only on Kalshi. Get a $20 bonus when you deposit $100 with code LIT on signup!

Headline Roundup

  • 28 y/o Jefferies banker Carter McIntosh unexpectedly passed away (BBG)

  • White House offers to buy out federal workers who do not RTO (FT)

  • Hedge fund dispersion trade had its best day since Covid (BBG)

  • Traders are boosting bullish Treasury bets ahead of Fed decision (BBG

  • Global euphoria for Indian bonds wanes as rupee slumps (BBG)

  • HSBC will exit its IB business in US, UK and Europe to focus on Asia (FT)

  • Steve Cohen says Trump policies could halt markets' rise this year (RT)

  • Steve Cohen still 'bullish' on AI after big selloff (FT)

  • Bridgewater remains bullish after DeepSeek impact (RT)

  • Ray Dalio says AI 'bubble' echoes dot-com excesses (FT)

  • Black Swan's Taleb says Nvidia rout is hint of what's coming (BBG)

  • Nvidia short bets made over $6B in profits after DeepSeek panic (RT)

  • Retail investors bought record amount of Nvidia stock in DeepSeek rout (RT)

  • US Bancorp president Gunjan Kedia will become its first female CEO (RT)

  • Japan's SWF GPIF will be allowed to bid in bond auctions (BBG)

  • Daniel Lopez-Cruz will rejoin Bahrain's Investcorp as global head of PE (BBG)

  • Musk clashed with Norway SWF CEO over vote against pay package (FT

  • Google employees petition for 'job security' ahead of expected cuts (CNBC)

  • UK law firm RBG suspends trading after management disputes (FT)

  • Twitter / X partnered with Visa to take on Venmo and PayPal (RT)

  • LVMH considers widening 'Made in US' footprint amid France fatigue (RT)

  • Kohl's laid off 10% from corporate (RT)

  • US labor union membership slipped to a record low in 2024 (RT)

  • Boom's supersonic jet breaks sound barrier in historic first (BBG)

A Message from Affinity

Techstars and Affinity: Private capital predictions for 2025

Where are the private markets headed this year? With dealmaker optimism on the rise, that's the topic of discussion when Keith Camhi, Managing Director at Techstars, joins Affinity for a webinar on February 13. He'll discuss his perspective on early and late stage companies—from exit potential to fundraising opportunities—and how firms can continue to close high-quality deals in a tight market.

Join the conversation to learn how investors are turning up the notch on deal sourcing, using AI to tackle data complexities, and differentiating to stand out amidst greater competition. Tune in on February 13.

Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok

  • Italy’s Mediobanca rejected a $14B all-stock takeover offer from rival bank Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 

  • Brookfield offered to buy the remaining outstanding shares it doesn't already own in French renewables company Neoen at a $6.4B valuation

  • $3.5B-listed insurer Brighthouse Financial is considering a sale

  • Eversource Energy agreed to sell its public water supply unit Aquarion Water in a $2.4B deal

  • Bain Capital proposed to acquire the remaining 61% stake it doesn't already own in surgical facility operator Surgery Partners at a $3.3B valuation

  • Bridgefield Capital will acquire Philips' emergency care business

  • Founder Steve Feinberg is considering selling part or all of his ownership stake in hedge fund Cerberus Capital Management

  • Fenway Sports Group is seeking to sell a minority stake in the NHL's Pittsburgh Penguins

VC

  • Helion, a startup building a fusion reactor for Microsoft, raised a $425M Series F at a $5.2B valuation led by SoftBank, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and a major university endowment

  • AI robotics start-up Skild AI is in talks to raise an over $300M round at a $4B valuation led by SoftBank

  • TravelPerk, a Spanish business travel management platform, raised a $200M Series E at a $2.7B valuation led by Atomico

  • VEIR, a startup delivering superconducting solutions for AI data centers and high-capacity power lines, raised a $75M Series B led by Munich Re Ventures

  • Quibim, a healthtech startup developing imaging biomarkers for precision medicine, raised a $50M Series A led by Asabys and Buenavista

  • SafelyYou, a startup using cameras and AI-powered sensors to detect falls, raised a $43M Series C led by Touring Capital

  • Paytrack, a Brazilian corporate travel and expense management platform, raised a $40M Series B led by Riverwood Capital

  • VideaHealth, a dental AI startup, raised a $40M Series B led by Threshold Ventures

  • Nobi, a startup making smart lights to detect falls in elderly care, raised a $36M Series B led by Angelini Ventures and Nexus NeuroTech Ventures

  • The Helper Bees, a technology platform helping older adults live at home, raised a $35M round led by Centana Growth Partners

  • Telemedicine clinic Hone Health raised a $33M Series A led by Tribe Capital, PIF, Republic Capital, and more

  • Atomicwork, a SaaS startup creating AI agents to simplify communication and service delivery, raised a $25M Series A led by Khosla Ventures and Z47

  • Qsic, an intelligent in-store audio platform, raised a $25M Series B led by Hedosophia

  • AI-powered drug discovery startup Manas AI raised a $24.6M seed round from Reid Hoffman, General Catalyst, and Greylock

  • B2B SaaS platform Nue raised a $20M Series A led by Inovia Capital

  • Anivive Lifesciences, a pet health company, raised a $20M round led by Leonid Capital Partners

  • Earth AI, a predictive explorer for clean energy metals, raised a $20M Series B led by Tamarack Global and Cantos Ventures

  • Token distribution infrastructure Sign raised $16M led by YZi Labs

  • Bonsai Robotics, a physical AI solutions for agriculture, raised a $15M Series A led by Bison Ventures

  • Hypori, a mobile access platform provider, raised a $12M Series B extension from UBS, Carahsoft Technology, and AE Industrial Partners

  • AI fintech WiseLayer raised a $7.2M round led by Canaan Partners

  • Applied Labs, a startup helping businesses deploy AI agents, raised a $4.2M seed round led by Abstract

  • Whizzo, an Indian materials science manufacturing startup, raised a $4.2M seed round led by Lightspeed

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • SoftBank-backed Indian eyewear company Lenskart is considering a $1B India IPO

  • Ireland raised $680M in a sale of a 5% stake in lender AIB Group

  • Pork producer Smithfield Foods raised $522M at a $7.7B valuation in its US IPO

  • Titan America, a subsidiary of Titan Cement International, is seeking to raise $432M at a $3.3B valuation in a US IPO

  • Insulin device maker Beta Bionics is seeking to raise $170M at a $695M valuation in an upsized US IPO

  • Karman Space & Defense filed for a US IPO

Debt

  • PIMCO and Apollo are considering buying a portion of the $3B of debt tied to Musk's LBO of Twitter, which is being sweetened with a stake in startup xAI

  • Egypt will launch a $2B dollar bond sale, its first in two years

  • A JV between commodities giant Glencore and Indonesian energy giant Chandra Asri Pacific is marketing a $1B sustainability-linked syndicated loan

  • Jaguar Land Rover, the UK arm of India's Tata Motors, is planning to raise $500M in an offshore loan

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Bankrupt Swedish battery maker Northvolt asked shareholders for $1.3B to restore its business

  • Battery maker IM3NY filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Fundraising

  • Colesco, a sustainability-focused private credit firm, raised $840M for a targeted $1.5B debut fund 

  • VC Pelion Venture Partners raised $500M for its latest fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Binance founder CZ converted VC Binance Labs into $10B family office YZi Labs

  • France stepped up a money laundering investigation into Binance

Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

Exec’s Picks

  • Two seasoned investment bankers. 30 years of joint industry experience. 45 minutes of exclusive insights.

    Join UpSlide's webinar on January 30th and learn how to transform your teams' pitching process and beat the competition this year. Register today.

  • Joe Wiggins shared a framework within which markets tend to deal with surprises.

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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