A Quant Pope

Author

Litquidity Capital
May 09, 2025

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Good Morning,

Bill Gates accused Musk of killing children, US and UK agreed to a trade deal, Wall Street bonuses are expected to drop, BlackRock ordered MDs back to office full-time, and the Catholic Church elected the first American pope.

Bigdata.com's new AI research agents have unlocked a new era of financial research, covering everything from market intelligence, investing and risk management. It's something you must check out.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

As of 5/8/2025 market close.

Click here to learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*

Markets

  • US stocks rose yesterday as investors digested the US-UK trade deal 

  • Global stocks recovered all losses since 'Liberation Day' on April 2 to hit a one-month high 

  • US college munis lagged benchmark in April amid growing higher education risks

Earnings

  • Shopify reported mixed Q1 results and issued soft Q2 guidance amid tariff uncertainty and potential impacts from shifting trade policies (CNBC)

  • Peloton beat Q3 revenue estimates but missed on earnings as total sales fell 13% YoY, driven by a 27% drop in hardware and 4% decline in app subscriptions; worsening consumer sentiment, low subscriber growth visibility, and 10% tariffs on Taiwan-sourced equipment weighed on the outlook (BBG)

  • DraftKings missed Q1 revenue estimates but met on earnings as monthly unique payers rose but average revenue per payer continued to fall, reflecting weaker monetization amid macro uncertainty (DKNG)

  • Coinbase missed Q1 revenue estimates as consumer and institutional trading volumes fell 17% and 9% QoQ respectively; shares declined despite stablecoin revenue growth and rising derivatives market share as the firm warned of weaker blockchain rewards ahead (CNBC)

  • Warner Bros missed Q1 earnings and revenue estimates on an 18% decline in studio revenue, a 7% drop in cable TV revenue, and cord-cutting pressures, despite strong streaming subscriber growth; the firm is moving towards a potential breakup (RT)

  • What we're watching this week:  

    • Today: Honda

  • Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

  • 100% odds for that one penguin nation…

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Headline Roundup

  • US and UK announced a trade agreement (WSJ)

  • Trump proposed raising income taxes on wealthy Americans (BBG)

  • BoE cut rates to 4.25% as it sees tariff hit to growth (RT)

  • US commerce chief expects dozens of trade deals in next month (RT)

  • US productivity dropped for the first time since 2022 (BBG)

  • China exports jumped 8% in April despite tariffs (FT)

  • Wall Street bonuses are expected to drop as uncertainty looms (BBG)

  • Asian investors fear more volatility after 'extraordinary' FX moves (FT)

  • Private credit fund results expose pockets of market stress (BBG)

  • Private credit is looking to grow into $22T industry (BBG)

  • UK fund managers want to force pensions to invest in UK stocks (FT)

  • Asian bonds are more sensitive to Treasury rallies than routs (BBG)

  • PIMCO sees heightened US recession risks (FT)

  • BlackRock ordered MDs back to office full-time (FT)

  • Insight Partners confirmed personal data stolen during January hack (TC)

  • OpenAI named Instacart CEO Fidji Simo as CEO of Applications (TC)

  • Match Group cut 13% of staff (BBG)

  • Bill Gates accused Musk of 'killing' world's children (RT)

  • DOGE-led software to speed up US job cuts even as Musk steps back (RT)

  • Robert Prevost becomes first American pope (WSJ)

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Deal Flow

M&A / Investments

  • Bain Capital is seeking to sell the China business of data centre operator WinTriX DC at a $4B valuation

  • Coinbase agreed to acquire crypto derivatives exchange Deribit for $2.9B

  • Real estate analytics firm CoStar agreed to acquire real estate portal Domain Holdings Australia at a $1.9B valuation

  • Japanese motor manufacturer Nidec withdrew its $1.8B hostile tender offer for machine tool maker Makino Milling Machine after facing strong resistance

  • UK engineering firm Smiths Group is pressing ahead with plans to sell its $1.3B electrical connectors unit in first step towards a break-up 

  • Centerbridge-backed satellite communications company Speedcast is exploring a breakup including a sale of its ground stations unit for over $1B; the company reportedly plans three separate auctions for its services, infrastructure, and government units

  • Energy firm BKV and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners' CI Energy Transition Fund I formed a JV to expand US carbon-capture projects; CI will invest $500M for a 49% stake

  • Raizen, a Brazilian ethanol JV between Shell and Cosan, is exploring a sale of its aviation fuel distribution business, valued at up to $200M, to reduce debt

  • Financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald is in talks to acquire UBS's hedge fund unit O'Connor

VC

  • Clay, a sales automation startup, raised $1.5B in a tender from Sequoia

  • mPower Technology, a solar power solutions for space, raised a $21M Series B led by Razor's Edge Ventures

  • Fastino, a startup training AI models with cheap gaming GPUs, raised a $17.5M seed round led by Khosla Ventures

  • RockSolidProtocol, a decentralized platform for tokenizing real world assets, raised a $16M pre-sale round

  • Glide, an embedded fintech platform, raised a $15M Series A led by Acrew Capital

  • Salary benchmarking startup Ravio raised a $12M Series A led by Spark Capital

  • Doubleword, a self-hosted AI inference platform, raised a $12M Series A led by Dawn Capital

  • Kouper, a healthcare technology platform, raised $10M in funding led by General Catalyst, 25Madison, and CVS Health Ventures

  • Colb Asset, a real-world asset tokenization startup, raised a $7.3M seed extension round

  • Fuse Games, a Turkish mobile gaming studio, raised $7M in funding led by Griffin Gaming Partners

  • Valarian, a UK platform for enforced isolation and compartmentalized infrastructure, raised a $7M round led by Scout Ventures and Artis Ventures

  • S4labour, a UK workforce management software provider, raised $5.3M from YFM Equity Partners

  • Kind Design, a climate-tech and construction-tech startup, raised a $5M seed 1 round at a $30M valuation led by Overlay Capital

  • CueZen, an AI-based personalization engine for health, raised a $5M seed round led by Point72 Ventures

  • Una Software, a startup redefining FP&A with AI-powered planning, raised a $4.4M seed round from Staircase Ventures and Emerald Development Managers

  • Jozu, a startup building orchestration tools for AI applications, raised a $4M seed round led by HalfCourt Capital

IPO / Direct Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

  • Apollo-backed specialty insurer Aspen Insurance raised $397M for a $3B valuation in its IPO, which surged 11%

  • A pair of shareholders affiliated with One Rock Capital Partners are seeking to raise $1.5B in a share sale of Primo Brands, known for Poland Spring and Saratoga bottled water

  • Ryan Reynolds' connected TV advertising platform MNTN is considering launching its IPO as soon as next week, after delaying plans due to market volatility

  • Citigroup's Mexican retail unit Banamex is preparing to IPO in Q4 after ruling out a direct sale

Debt

  • Nigeria repaid IMF's $3.4B emergency Covid-19 loan to officially exit the list of debtor nations

  • Asian logistics property developer GLP raised $300M in a dollar-denominated bond sale

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

  • Beyond Meat raised $100M in debt financing from non-profit Unprocessed Foods in exchange for rights to purchase 12.5% of Beyond's shares as plant-based sales struggle

  • UK asset manager Aberdeen and credit investor Mesarete Capital are considering joining a group of overseas creditors negotiating next steps for holders of Lebanon's sovereign bonds

Fundraising / Secondaries

  • Growth equity firm Mainsail Partners raised $1.5B for its seventh flagship fund to back bootstrapped, founder-led B2B SaaS firms in scaling and growth

  • SQ Capital plans to raise $1B for a debut PE secondaries fund

  • Lower MM PE firm Hidden Harbor Capital Partners raised an $850M continuation fund for four PortCos led by private markets FOF AlpInvest

  • Lower MM PE firm Southfield Capital raised $560M for its fourth fund 

  • Water-focused growth equity investor XPV Water Partners raised $625M across two new vehicles

  • German engineering conglomerate Bosch's VC arm launched a $270M fund to invest in cutting-edge technology

Crypto Sum Snapshot

  • Celsius founder Mashinksey was sentenced to 12 years for fraud

  • Stablecoin bill fails to clear key hurdle in Senate

  • Check out our Crypto Sum newsletter for the full stories on everything crypto!

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*Source: Hamilton Lane data, Bloomberg as of January 2024. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
All securities come with specific risks not limited to a total loss of your investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please review the risks specific to this investment on the HLPIF deal page hosted on Republic.com/hlpif

Financial Services Recruiting 💼

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.

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