All three major US indexes continued to recover on Friday as investors digested the Fed's rate decision, the chip stocks drama, and the Iran situation 

MSCI EM index had its best day since 2008 after tumbling last month

US 30Y yield spiked to its highest level since 2007

BlackRock's 20Y+ Treasury Bond ETF slumped to its lowest since 2004

Munis had their worst July since 2003

Dollar posted its worst week in over three months 

Ares beat Q2 earnings estimates as a record $36B of fundraising boosted AUM past $670B; CEO ​Arougheti says the firm should be bigger in PE (RT)

ExxonMobil beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as profits surged on supply disruption and rising oil prices due to the Iran war (CNBC)

Chevron also beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as profits surged on supply disruption and rising oil prices due to the Iran war (CNBC)

What we're watching this week:  

Full calendar here

It's been a while since markets were so uncertain about the Fed's rate policy. Doesn't help that we have a whole new Fed chair

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US paused Iran strikes over an imminent deal (CNBC)

Ken Griffin's knack for sniffing out trouble is set to reward Citadel (BBG)

Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of Fed meetings (NYT)

US Treasury yield curve 'twist' reflects view Fed may not hike again (RT)

US Treasury weighs repo entry that could reshape funding markets (BBG)

US Treasury intervened to support Japan's yen for first time since 2011 (FT)

Banks offload risk from leveraged ETFs with exotic 'crash puts' (BBG)

Biggest Wall Street rotation since 2020 shows AI crowding risks (BBG)

Koreans are vowing to never invest again (BBG)

Texas Stock Exchange rolled out trading for all tickers (BBG)

PE dealmakers are shunning big firms to go it alone (BBG)

Wall Street is now lending to wealthy against pre-IPO startup stocks (BBG)

AI chip production is set to double every 9 months (NYT)

Chinese VCs rush to raise funds after three-year drought (FT)

Major corporates are turning to retired CEOs (WSJ)

Companies are rushing to close daring deals under Trump (NYT)

SpaceX short interest soared to one-third of free float ahead of earnings (BBG)

Capital One closed Trump's accounts after anti-money laundering probe (RT)

AI startup apologizes for offering interviews in exchange for tattoos (WSJ)

'Spider-Man' notches second-biggest Hollywood debut ever (WSJ)

Sometimes it's a revenue milestone: When Wirestock, a multi-modal data provider for AI labs, raised its $23M Series A, the announcement also mentioned it had crossed $40M in annual run-rate revenue. For a growth investor who only engages above a revenue bar, that $40M is the green light.

Sometimes it's a new market: Novella's $21M raise came with plans to open offices across Miami, Houston, and southern California. If you're a commercial real estate broker, that's three leads with addresses attached.

Pharma giants AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb held talks for a $400B merger

Italian lender Banco BPM abandoned 'merger of equals' talks with ‌rival BMPS after helping it fend off a $40B bid by peer Intesa Sanpaolo; BMPS is now exploring a takeover of Banco BPM

FIFA scrapped plans to sell a 20% stake in FIFA Forward Enterprise, a new $20B commercial vehicle, amid backlash

Couche-Tard, the parent on Canadian convenience store chain Circle K, agreed to buy Polish retailer Żabka Group from CVC, Partners Group, and management for $8.7B

Brookfield is exploring a $5B sale of Canadian pipeline operator NorthRiver

KKR is nearing a $4.3B takeover of ​medical device outsourcing company Integer Holdings

NXP Semiconductors is in talks ‌to buy $3.8B-listed chip designer Ambarella

BP plans to sell its North Sea business for $2.7B

Italian electrical manufacturing firm Prysmian is in advanced talks to acquire smaller $2.5B-listed US peer Atkore in a cash deal 

BOX, the equity options market of Canadian stock exchange TMX Group, will merge with Jane Street-backed exchange operator MEMX at a $2.3B valuation, with TMX investing $800M in cash and holding a 59% interest

Lumina Crown, the family office of CSG-founder Michal Strnad, will take a 14% stake in Italian tire giant Pirelli for $1.1B 

China's Huaxin Building Materials will acquire the Philippines business of Swiss building materials ‌supplier Holcim Group for $810M

Sports PE firm Ashland Forest and former Newcastle United-backer Amanda Staveley agreed to take a 25% stake in UK soccer club West Ham United from Vanessa Gold for $200M, setting up a tussle with Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky 

UK supermarket chain Sainsbury's offloaded its online retailer Argos for $160M one decade after acquiring it for $1.8B

GLP's co-founder/CEO Mei Zhi Ming acquired a 22% stake in Chinese theme park operator Haichang Ocean Park from former controlling shareholder Sunriver Starrysea Tourism 

French automotive group Cosmobilis and private credit ​investor Park Square Capital acquired the commercial rights to the World Rally Championship

Indian rapid-commerce firm Zepto paused its downsized $850M IPO and will seek a new $100M pre-IPO round at a lower $4.5B valuation from Nexus Venture Partners, General Catalyst, and others instead

SHINE Technologies, a next-generation fusion technology company, raised $70M in additional funding led by Baillie Gifford and Fidelity

Revoy, an electric plug-in trailer startup for trucks, raised a $27M funding round led by Standard Capital

Balance Theory, an AI-native cybersecurity investment platform, raised a $19M Series A led by SYN Ventures

Smallest.ai, a voice AI startup, raised a $13M Series A led by Seligman Ventures

Axis Robotics, a physical AI/data engine startup, raised a $12M seed round led by Hack VC

Ellis, a private credit operations platform, raised an $11M seed round led by First Round Capital

Japan's SoftBank, PayPay, and SMFG will invest $1.8B in 7-Eleven-owner Seven & i Holdings in a private share placement 

Nuclear tech firm Westinghouse filed confidentially for an IPO; Brookfield and uranium producer Cameco acquired the firm for $8B in 2023

Bain Capital-owned Indian automotive supplier Dhoot Transmission is seeking to raise $325M in an India IPO

Sleep apnea-focused biotech Apnimed surged 56% after raising $192M for a $1B market cap in an upsized IPO priced at the top of a marketed range

Trump family-backed defense tech company Space-Eyes will merge with McKinley Acquisition Corp in $640M deal

Nexus Data Centers is in advanced talks to raise $15B for a Texas campus tied to Anthropic, ​with Google offering financial guarantees and supplying chips 

Glencore, Vitol, and Cargill stopped trading with iron ore giant Radiant World on fake invoice concerns, with creditors Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies also reviewing exposure

South Korea plans to inject $14B into its SWF Korea Investment Corporation for strategic investments in AI, data centers, and infrastructure

Ares raised $13B in equity commitments for its private credit funds in Q2, the most in three years

Cynosure Partners raised a $270M CV for RIA rollup Savant Wealth Management led by Hamilton Lane

VC secondaries firm Savano Capital Partners raised $250M for its fourth fund

Coldcard hardware wallet flaw linked to $70M Bitcoin theft in 40 minutes

JPMorgan and other major banks completed tokenized cross-border payments is 80 seconds in test

Cracking the Vault published an in-depth article detailing how Situational Awareness' 440% gain ended in a forced sale to Citadel.

Also, WSJ published the first look into the hours that led up to Situational Awareness' blow up. Unfortunately, just as guests were arriving to Leopold's wedding.