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Good Morning,
Tail-risk hedges are rallying, CTAs are maxed out on US oil longs, traders are pricing in 2026 rate hikes for Europe, and oil reversed its dramatic rally after Trump signaled an end to the Iran conflict.
Diversify beyond volatile stocks and bonds with Percent, a highly democratized private credit market for exclusive private credit deals.
Let's dive in.
Before The Bell
As of 3/9/2026 market close.
Learn more about the Litquidity portfolios and subscribe to the strategies on Autopilot.*
Markets
US stocks reversed losses to end higher yesterday after Trump called Iran strikes 'very complete' and 'very far' ahead of schedule
Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 5% to come down 10% from its February ATH
Nikkei 225 implied volatility soared to the highest since Covid
China sovereign bond futures posted their biggest drop YTD
Euro dropped to a four-month low versus dollar
Traders are the most bearish on euro since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion
Traders are pricing in 2026 rate hikes at ECB, BoE, and SNB
Oil fell below $90 bbl after surging to $118 in weekend trading
CTAs maxed out on long US oil bets for first time since 2021
Earnings
Prediction Markets
Trump sabotaged his own economic wishlist
Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market
Headline Roundup
Trump signaled end to Iran conflict after a call with Putin (CNBC)
Investors brace for 1970s-style stagflation (RT)
US weighs several options to tame surging gas prices (BBG)
Tail-risk hedges rally as Iran conflict shakes markets (BBG)
Iran conflict is tearing up bond market's 2026 playbook (BBG)
Goldman is pitching hedge funds on strategies to short corporate loans (FT)
Beaten down IPOs face 'negative feedback loop' after lock ups (BBG)
CitSec sees markets mis-pricing Fed and ECB rate paths (BBG)
Banks top estimates in otherwise mixed European earnings season (BBG)
Soaring credit risk pushes borrowers to keep delaying bond sales (BBG)
SRT sales cost are likely to rise amid Iran war (BBG)
Activist threat pushes Japanese companies to unwind cross-shareholdings (RT)
BlackRock's retail private credit hopes run into market's angst (BBG)
Hedge fund Irenic poached Apollo's Wang to build out new PE unit (BBG)
Two Balyasny pods blew up (BBG)
Polymarket takes on stock options with S&P 500 bets (BBG)
Anthropic sued to block Pentagon blacklisting over AI restrictions (RT)
Wall Street banks offer UAE staff option to relocate temporarily (BBG)
US Gaza plan is on hold as Iran war pauses disarmament talks (RT)
Iran threatened to confiscate property of Iranians abroad (RT)
US charged two men in Islamic terrorism act at New York protest (WSJ)
A Message from Percent
Is Your Portfolio Too Correlated?
When the S&P 500 sneezes, does your entire portfolio catch a cold? Private credit on Percent offers a way to generate yield based on asset performance, not market sentiment.
Target up to 20% annualized returns on short-term notes
Average deal terms of ~9 months
Asset-based structures with a 1.16% default rate
New investors earn up to $500 on their first investment.
Alternative investments are speculative and possess a high level of risk. No assurance can be given that investors will receive a return of their capital. Those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest. Investments in private placements are highly illiquid and those investors who cannot hold an investment for an indefinite term should not invest. Private credit investments may be complex investments and they are subject to default risk.
Deal Flow
M&A / Strategic
PE firm Advent is exploring a $4B sale of naval defense business Ultra Maritime
Apollo's sports investment arm Apollo Sports Capital is set to complete its 55% acquisition of Spanish soccer club Atletico Madrid at a $2.9B valuation
Monomoy Capital Partners agreed to acquire car service chain Jiffy Lube and subsidiary Premium Velocity Auto from Shell in a $1.3B deal
OpenAI agreed to acquire AI security startup Promptfoo
Electronics firm Agilent agreed to acquire clinical pathology firm Biocare Medical in a $950M cash deal
Zurich Insurance Group agreed to buy Italian peer Generali's home and auto unit RedClick for $390M cash
EQT agreed to buy a 42% stake in UK utility Yorkshire Water's parent firm Kelda and will contribute to the $798M loan Kelda is due to repay
Portugal's soccer league Liga Portugal is weighing a stake sale of its media rights
Abu Dhabi's Judan Financial agreed to buy a 50.1% stake in alternative asset manager Alpha Wave Global
Ex-EY exec Jeff Soar will launch UK tax business WTS UK with backing from EQT to take on Big Four
VC
UK AI infrastructure startup Nscale raised a $2B Series C at a $14.6B valuation led by Aker and 8090 Industries
Stablecoin neobank KAST raised an $80M Series A co-led by QED Investors and Left Lane Capital
Isembard, a UK software-first manufacturing network, raised a $50M Series A led by Union Square Ventures
Dify, an enterprise-grade agentic workflow platform, raised a $30M Series Pre-A round at a $180M valuation led by HSG
Axiomatic AI, an engineering-focused AI verification startup, raised an $18M seed round led by Engine Ventures
Security AI startup Augur raised a $15M seed round led by Plural
Enterprise AI agent startup Lyzr AI raised a $14.5M Series A+ led by Accenture
AI-native trust administrator Axiom Trust raised an $11.8M round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners
AI growth-engine startup Mega raised an $11.5M Series A round led by Goodwater Capital
Get real-time updates on any startup, VC, or sector on Fundable
IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades
Activist hedge fund Starboard Value built a sizable stake in $6.4B-listed food producer Lamb Weston
GIC-backed Indian renewable energy firm Greenko Energies is weighing a $1B Indian IPO
Brookfield-backed Brazilian sanitation giant BRK Ambiental is considering delaying its $770M Brazil IPO
$14B-China listed Aier Eye Hospital Group is considering a Hong Kong listing
SPAC / SPV
Lithium and power developer Controlled Thermal Resources will merge with Plum Acquisition Corp IV in a $4.7B deal
Autonomous drone maker Autonomous Power Corporation will merge with Nasdaq-listed golf course group Aureus Greenway with backing from the Trump family and Unusual Machines
Debt
Banks led by Bank of America launched a $2.75B leveraged loan to help fund Nexstar Media Group's $6.2B acquisition of Tegna
French satellite operator Eutelsat completed a $5.8B debt and equity financing
Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed
Lender Western Alliance sued Jefferies over a soured $126M loan tied to bankrupt auto supplier First Brands
Crypto Sum Snapshot
Circle and Stripe bet big on AI agent payments
Nasdaq partnered with Kraken in 24/7 tokenized stock trading push
Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.
Exec’s Picks
The IRS's 21-month manual review delay will affect K-1s this tax season. With 26,000 staff cuts, complex returns are more likely to get flagged and put into processing limbo. It's more important than ever to have a CPA that understands complexity. Upgrade to OLarry Private Client Tax Advisory for a flat transparent fee. Get 10% off with code Execsum.
Harvey Sawikin wrote a great piece on how to make sense of insider trading on prediction markets.
Also, it seems like college kids are all in on sports betting. Not necessarily in a good way…
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We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!
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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.